[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 May 26 issued 2330 UT on 03 May 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon May 4 09:30:49 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MAY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 04 MAY - 06 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 May: 143/97
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 May 05 May 06 May
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R0 level on UT day 03-May,
with only low-level C-class flares observed. There are currently
nine active sunspot regions on the visible solar disk, with Active
Region (AR) 4428 (S23W51, beta) being the largest. This region
has shown some decay over the last 24 hours. AR 4429 (S05W04,
beta) has shown some growth in minor spots over the same period.
A new region has recently rotated over the eastern limb at N22E88,
with a magnetic classification dominated by limb foreshortening.
All other regions on the disk are either stable or in decay.
Solar flare activity over 04-06 May is forecast to be at the
R0 level, with a chance of R1, given the number of solar regions
currently on the disk. S0 solar proton conditions were observed
over UT day 03-May. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over
04-06 May. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were
observed over the past 24 hours in available coronagraph imagery.
No CME was visible from the filament eruption first observed
on 02/1816UT. The solar wind was broadly constant for much of
03-May, ranging between 400 and 440 km/s across most of the UT
day, and declining to between 380 and 400 km/s over the past
three hours. The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF,
Bt) peaked at 6 nT, with the north-south component (Bz) ranging
between -6 and +4 nT over the UT day. The solar wind is expected
to continue to trend towards background values over 04-06 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 May: G0
Estimated Indices 03 May : A K
Australian Region 4 22202201
Cocos Island 2 12101200
Darwin 4 22201202
Townsville 5 22202202
Learmonth 5 22202300
Alice Springs 4 22202201
Gingin 5 22201310
Canberra 3 11202201
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 22202201
Hobart 4 22202201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 May :
Macquarie Island 5 22212211
Casey 8 33311211
Mawson 26 55322534
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 3112 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 May 8 G0
05 May 7 G0
06 May 6 G0
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region on UT
day 03-May were at the G0 level, with G0 conditions also reported
at the planetary level. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with G1 periods reported at Mawson. G0
conditions are forecast over 04-06 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly normal on
03-May, with some degradations seen in the South American region,
as well as in high latitude regions. Global ionospheric conditions
are forecast to remain mostly normal over 04-06 May, with normal
to fair conditions possible in high latitude regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 May 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 74
May 71
Jun 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 May 85 Near predicted monthly values
05 May 85 Near predicted monthly values
06 May 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 03-May were largely near predicted values, with
some enhancements observed during daylight hours, including up
to 45% enhanced at Niue Island. Sporadic E and spread-F were
observed at Hobart and Canberra. MUFs are forecast to be near
predicted monthly values over 04-06 May, with some enhancements
possible during daylight hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 May
Speed: 434 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 103000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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