[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 May 26 issued 2330 UT on 03 May 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon May 4 09:30:49 AEST 2026


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MAY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 04 MAY - 06 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 May:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 May: 143/97


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 May             05 May             06 May
Activity     R0, chance of R1   R0, chance of R1   R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             135/89

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R0 level on UT day 03-May, 
with only low-level C-class flares observed. There are currently 
nine active sunspot regions on the visible solar disk, with Active 
Region (AR) 4428 (S23W51, beta) being the largest. This region 
has shown some decay over the last 24 hours. AR 4429 (S05W04, 
beta) has shown some growth in minor spots over the same period. 
A new region has recently rotated over the eastern limb at N22E88, 
with a magnetic classification dominated by limb foreshortening. 
All other regions on the disk are either stable or in decay. 
Solar flare activity over 04-06 May is forecast to be at the 
R0 level, with a chance of R1, given the number of solar regions 
currently on the disk. S0 solar proton conditions were observed 
over UT day 03-May. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 
04-06 May. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were 
observed over the past 24 hours in available coronagraph imagery. 
No CME was visible from the filament eruption first observed 
on 02/1816UT. The solar wind was broadly constant for much of 
03-May, ranging between 400 and 440 km/s across most of the UT 
day, and declining to between 380 and 400 km/s over the past 
three hours. The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, 
Bt) peaked at 6 nT, with the north-south component (Bz) ranging 
between -6 and +4 nT over the UT day. The solar wind is expected 
to continue to trend towards background values over 04-06 May.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 May: G0

Estimated Indices 03 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22202201
      Cocos Island         2   12101200
      Darwin               4   22201202
      Townsville           5   22202202
      Learmonth            5   22202300
      Alice Springs        4   22202201
      Gingin               5   22201310
      Canberra             3   11202201
      Kennaook Cape Grim   4   22202201
      Hobart               4   22202201    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 May :
      Macquarie Island     5   22212211
      Casey                8   33311211
      Mawson              26   55322534

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   3112 2123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 May     8    G0
05 May     7    G0
06 May     6    G0

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region on UT 
day 03-May were at the G0 level, with G0 conditions also reported 
at the planetary level. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in 
the Antarctic region, with G1 periods reported at Mawson. G0 
conditions are forecast over 04-06 May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly normal on 
03-May, with some degradations seen in the South American region, 
as well as in high latitude regions. Global ionospheric conditions 
are forecast to remain mostly normal over 04-06 May, with normal 
to fair conditions possible in high latitude regions.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 May    92

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      74
May      71
Jun      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 May    85    Near predicted monthly values
05 May    85    Near predicted monthly values
06 May    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region on UT day 03-May were largely near predicted values, with 
some enhancements observed during daylight hours, including up 
to 45% enhanced at Niue Island. Sporadic E and spread-F were 
observed at Hobart and Canberra. MUFs are forecast to be near 
predicted monthly values over 04-06 May, with some enhancements 
possible during daylight hours.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 May
Speed: 434 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:   103000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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