[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 May 26 issued 2330 UT on 02 May 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun May 3 09:30:50 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MAY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 03 MAY - 05 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 May: 159/113
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 May 04 May 05 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R0 level throughout
UT day 02-May, with a C8.7 flare from the western limb being
the largest observed. There are currently seven numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk, with Active Region (AR) 4425 (N05W26,
beta) being the largest. This region has exhibited some trailing
spot decay over the past UT day. Regions 4429 (S05E12, beta)
and 4431 (S17E39, beta) have both shown some growth over the
same period. AR 4428 (S23W35, beta) has shown some spot separation
and mild growth over the previous UT day. Two new unnumbered
regions have rotated over the eastern limb over the past UT day
at S18E85 and N11E87, with magnetic classification not yet possible
due to limb foreshortening. All other regions are stable or in
decay. Solar flare activity is forecast to be at the R0-R1 level
over 03-05 May, given the number of regions currently on the
disk. S0 solar proton conditions were observed over 02-May, with
solar proton flux at background levels throughout the day. S0
solar proton conditions are expected over 03-05 May. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed over the past 24
hours. A south-directed CME and a west-directed CME were observed
in SOHO/LASCO imagery from 02/1112UT and 02/1149UT respectively,
with both events analysed to be far-side events and not geoeffective.
A filament eruption was observed in GONG H-alpha imagery centred
on S42E15 at 02/1816UT. However, no associated CME has yet been
observed in available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed
slowly declined over UT day 02-May, beginning the day at approximately
450 km/s, and declining to 400-430 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic
field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 6 nT, with the north-south
component (Bz) ranging between -5 and +5 nT over the UT day.
The solar wind is expected to continue to slowly decline over
03-05 May. A small enhancement may be seen on 03-May due to a
northern coronal hole high speed wind stream, but this is unlikely
to have a significant effect due to the northern latitude of
the coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 May: G0
Estimated Indices 02 May : A K
Australian Region 4 11111122
Cocos Island 4 11111122
Darwin 4 21111122
Townsville 4 21111122
Learmonth 5 11121222
Alice Springs 3 10111122
Gingin 4 11111222
Canberra 2 11021011
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 11021122
Hobart 3 11021021
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 May :
Macquarie Island 3 11022011
Casey 9 33321222
Mawson 22 43222246
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14 4432 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 May 12 G0
04 May 8 G0
05 May 7 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 02-May, with G0 conditions also reported at
the planetary level. An isolated G1 interval was recorded in
the Antarctic region at Mawson. G0 conditions are expected over
03-05 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions on UT day 02-May were
normal, with normal to fair conditions observed in some northern
high-latitude regions, and in parts of the South American region.
Mostly normal conditions are expected over 03-05 May. Isolated
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 May 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 74
May 71
Jun 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 May 85 Near predicted monthly values
04 May 85 Near predicted monthly values
05 May 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were largely near predicted values, with some enhancements
observed in the northern Australian region and at Niue Island
during local daytime. Sporadic-E was observed during local night
hours in southern Australian region, and spread-F was observed
at Hobart. MUFs are expected to remain near predicted monthly
values over 03-05 May. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 May
Speed: 462 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 155000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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