[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 May 26 issued 2330 UT on 01 May 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Sat May 2 09:30:51 AEST 2026

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MAY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May: 145/99

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 May             03 May             04 May
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             140/94

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R0 level on UT day 01-May, 
with a C7.4 flare from Active Region (AR) 4420 (N15W82, beta) 
peaking at 01/1524UT, the largest observed. This active region 
is one of nine on the visible solar disk, and continues to rotate 
beyond the western limb. The largest region is AR 4425 (N05W14, 
beta) which has experienced minor growth in trailer spots over 
the 24 hours. Active Regions 4428 (S23W24, beta), 4429 (S05E24, 
beta), and 4431 (S17E51, beta) also showed growth over the past 
UT day. All other regions are either stable or in decay. Solar 
flare activity is expected to be at the R0-R1 level over 02-04 
May, due to the number of regions currently on the visible solar 
disk. S0 solar proton conditions were observed over the last 
24 hours, with the solar proton flux at background levels throughout 
UT day 01-May. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 02-04 
May. No geoeffective coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed 
over the past UT day. A filament eruption near AR 4431 was visible 
in GONG/Halpha imaging from 01/1339UT, with a medium velocity 
east-directed CME visible from 01/1528UT. This event has been 
modelled to pass behind the Earth, and thus is not geoeffective. 
The solar wind speed was elevated during 01-May due to a high 
speed wind stream from a small equatorial coronal hole. The solar 
wind speed peaked at approximately 530 km/s early in the UT day, 
and has been slowly declining since, currently ranging between 
430 and 460 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field strength 
(IMF, Bt) peaked early in the UT day at 9 nT, with the north-south 
component (Bz) ranging between -8 and +6 nT over the UT day. 
An extended period of southward Bz was observed between 01/0057-0201UT. 
The solar wind speed is expected to continue to slowly decline 
over 02-04 May, as the coronal hole moves beyond a geoeffective 
position.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: G0

Estimated Indices 01 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   33320222
      Cocos Island         6   32210221
      Darwin               9   33320222
      Townsville           9   33320222
      Learmonth            9   33320222
      Alice Springs        8   33320221
      Gingin              11   33320332
      Canberra             7   33220221
      Kennaook Cape Grim   9   33230222
      Hobart               7   33220221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 May :
      Macquarie Island    17   35342231
      Casey               11   33421222
      Mawson              37   46421564

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15   2212 3345     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 May     8    G0
03 May     8    G0
04 May    10    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 01-May, with G0 conditions also reported at 
the planetary level. G1-G2 intervals were recorded in the Antarctic 
region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are forecast for 02-04 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-normal
03 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-normal
04 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-normal

COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions on UT day 01-May were 
normal to fair, with fair conditions observed at high latitudes, 
particularly in the northern hemisphere. Some degradations were 
also seen in the European region. Normal to fair conditions are 
expected over 02-04 May. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
01 May    84

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      74
May      71
Jun      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 May    85    Near predicted monthly values
03 May    85    Near predicted monthly values
04 May    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 45 was issued on 
1 May and is current for 1-2 May. Maximum Usable Frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region on 01-May were mostly near predicted 
monthly values, with some enhancements seen at Niue Island. Spread-F 
and sporadic-E were observed at Perth and Hobart, with sporadic-E 
also observed at Canberra. Depressions of 20% were observed in 
the Antarctic region. MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values over 02-04 May. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are 
possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 374 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    70000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au