[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 March 26 issued 2330 UT on 14 Mar 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Mar 15 10:30:50 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MARCH 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar: R0
Flares: None.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar
Activity R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Mar was R0, with no significant
flare activity observed. Solar region AR4384 has rotated over
the northwest limb and produced low level C class flare activity.
Medium sized solar region AR4392 (S15E46, beta) is now the largest
region on the visible solar disk and has shown an increase in
the number of small spots surrounding its larger main spot. To
the northeast of this region are two small regions both of which
have shown growth, in particular AR4395 (S04E58, beta) which
is rapidly growing. There are currently five numbered regions
on the solar disk, most of which are small. All other sunspot
groups are either stable or in decay. A 15 degree long filament
located at S60E05 erupted from 14/1115UT. A plasma spray was
observed from AR4384 from just behind the northwest limb from
14/1029UT. Solar activity over 15-17 Mar is expected to be R0,
chance R1. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed on UT day 14-Mar.
Minor narrow angle CME activity was observed from behind the
northwest limb. No CME appeared to be associated with the high
solar latitude filament eruption. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
were observed on UT day 14-Mar. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
are expected over 15-17 Mar. A large, narrow coronal hole spans
the visible solar disk. On UT day 14-Mar the solar wind speed
was strong due to the coronal hole wind stream from this hole.
The solar wind speed ranged from 565-755 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 13 nT and the north-south
IMF component range (Bz) was +9 to -9 nT. A southward interval
of IMF conditions was observed 13/2130-14/0330UT. The solar wind
is expected to continue to remain elevated on 15-Mar, with a
slow declining trend. There is a slight chance for a weak glancing
blow CME arrival on 15-Mar from a recent filament eruption observed
on late 12-Mar to early 13-Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: G1
Estimated Indices 14 Mar : A K
Australian Region 24 43455322
Cocos Island 16 33335321
Darwin 25 44445333
Townsville 25 43554323
Learmonth 25 43455422
Alice Springs 24 43455322
Gingin 30 43456432
Canberra 24 43455322
Kennaook Cape Grim 29 43465422
Hobart 31 44465422
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Mar :
Macquarie Island 41 54566432
Casey 27 45544333
Mawson 79 77755455
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Mar :
Darwin 18 (Quiet)
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice Springs 11 (Quiet)
Gingin 103 (Major storm)
Canberra 75 (Active)
Hobart 105 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 45
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 24 34352326
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Mar 17 G0-G1
16 Mar 13 G0
17 Mar 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 12 March
and is current for 14-15 Mar. G1 geomagnetic conditions were
observed on UT day 14-Mar in the Australian region. G1-G3 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. G2 planetary
conditions were observed, associated with a sustained interval
of southward IMF conditions early in the UT day. The increase
in geomagnetic activity was due to a coronal hole wind stream.
G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 15-Mar as the coronal
hole effects decline. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
for 16-17 Mar. A weak CME arrival may slightly increase geomagnetic
activity on 15-Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions ranged from poor to
normal on UT day 14-Mar. Periods of poor conditions may have
been experienced in the high latitude and polar regions. On 14-Mar
the middle to high latitude global ionospheric response to the
recent geomagnetic activity varied depending on whether the geomagnetic
storm activity was more in the local night or local day in each
sector. In the southern hemisphere in the Australian and South
American regions a neutral to positive ionospheric response was
observed, with ionospheric critical frequency enhancements of
15% observed during the local day in the Australian region. In
the South African region the ionospheric response was more negative
with up to 30% depressions observed. In the northern hemisphere
in the middle to high latitude European and North American regions
the ionospheric response was negative with 30% depressions observed
at times in the European region and in the North American region
a stronger 50% depression response was observed during the local
day. The Japanese and Korean regions showed a more neutral ionospheric
response due to local time onset of the geomagnetic activity.
The Bureau Antarctic riometers observed occasional increased
absorption of up to 2dB. HF radio propagation conditions are
expected to be fair to normal on 15-Mar as recent geomagnetic
activity declines, with normal conditions expected for 16-17
Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Mar 112
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 98
Mar 87
Apr 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Mar 85 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
16 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
17 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 14-Mar were mostly near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced. Spread F was observed at Hobart. MUFs are generally
expected to be near predicted values over 15-17 Mar, with 15%
depressions possible after local dawn for the southern Australian
region on 15-Mar following the recent geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: NA
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: NA
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: NA
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: NA
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 475 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 176000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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