[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 March 26 issued 2330 UT on 13 Mar 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Mar 14 10:30:51 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MARCH 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0955UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar
Activity R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Mar was R1 due to an M1.2
flare from AR4384 (N10W82, beta-gamma). This region has shown
slight growth in its trailer spots as it approaches the northwest
solar limb and also produced C class flare activity. Solar region
AR4381 which has recently rotated off disk, produced a C8.0 flare
from behind the northwest solar limb. Solar region AR4392 (S15E59,
beta) produced a C8.9 flare at 13/2023UT. This region has been
mostly stable. Smaller solar regions AR4389 (N14E15, beta) and
nearby AR4393 (N13E25, beta) showed slight growth. A small solar
region has emerged to the northeast of AR4392. There are currently
seven numbered regions and one unnumbered sunspot region on the
solar disk. The visible solar regions are small to medium in
size. All other sunspots are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity over 14-16 Mar is expected to be R0, chance R1. A solar
filament spanning from S40E30 to S30W30 erupted from 12/2100
to 13/0030UT. This filament whilst having a large angular extent
of approximately 60 degrees appeared faint in GONG H-alpha imagery
and was located quite south in solar latitude. No significantly
Earth-directed CMEs were observed on UT day 13-Mar. A south-southwest
directed CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery from 13/0048UT
in association with the filament eruption. This CME appeared
steeply southward directed in STEREO-A imagery from 13/0409UT.
The Enlil model run indicates a weak grazing Earth arrival at
15/0300UT +/- 12 hours. Due to the southward solar location/direction
of the filament eruption, the bulk of this CME is expected to
pass under the Earth's magnetosphere. S0 solar radiation storm
conditions were observed on UT day 13-Mar. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions are expected over 14-16 Mar. A large, narrow
coronal hole spans the visible solar disk. On UT day 13-Mar the
solar wind speed increased from 13/0800UT as the Earth entered
the coronal hole wind stream from this hole. The solar wind ranged
from 400-660 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 13 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz)
was +9 to -8 nT. The solar wind is expected to continue to remain
moderately elevated into 15-Mar.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Mar : A K
Australian Region 12 22342323
Cocos Island 9 22232223
Darwin 11 22242323
Townsville 17 33352323
Learmonth 17 32353323
Alice Springs 11 22242323
Gingin 12 32242323
Canberra 12 22342323
Kennaook Cape Grim 14 23343323
Hobart 14 23343323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Mar :
Macquarie Island 17 23353323
Casey 23 45542223
Mawson 32 54452326
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 41 (Unsettled)
Hobart 96 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 27
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3221 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Mar 18 G1, chance G2
15 Mar 15 G0-G1
16 Mar 12 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 12 March
and is current for 14-15 Mar. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed on UT day 13-Mar in the Australian region. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. An isolated
period of G1 planetary conditions was observed. The mild increase
in geomagnetic activity was due to the Earth entering a coronal
hole wind stream. G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 14-Mar,
with a chance for isolated periods of G2. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 15-Mar as the coronal hole effects decline.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair
15 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair
16 Mar Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were initially normal
then becoming fair on UT day 13-Mar. HF radio propagation conditions
are expected to be fair to normal over 14-16 Mar, with fair conditions
at middle to high latitudes during 14-15 Mar due to a mild increase
in geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Mar 109
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 98
Mar 87
Apr 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
15 Mar 85 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
16 Mar 85 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 13-Mar were mostly near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced. MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted
values over 14-16 Mar, with 15% depressions possible after local
dawn for the southern Australian region during 15-16 Mar in association
with mild geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 77500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list