[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 March 26 issued 2330 UT on 15 Mar 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Mar 16 10:30:49 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MARCH 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0939UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar
Activity R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 108/58 108/58 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Mar was R1 due to an M1.0
flare from AR4392 (S15E34, gamma). Minor localised on disk plasma
motion was observed with this flare. The small spots surrounding
this regions main spot continue to slowly grow. This medium sized
region is currently the largest of the on disk regions. Small
solar region AR4395 (S05E45, beta) which was growing rapidly
yesterday has now slowed in growth. Another small new region
AR4396 (N21E55, beta) has emerged and is currently growing. There
are currently six numbered regions on the solar disk, most of
which are small. All other sunspot groups are either stable or
in decay. Solar activity over 16-18 Mar is expected to be R0,
chance R1. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed on UT day 15-Mar.
A very faint and narrow southeast CME was observed in LASCO C2
imagery from 15/1112UT possibly following the M1.0 flare. This
CME is not considered significant. A northeast CME was observed
from 15/1812UT which could not be correlated to on disk activity.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 15-Mar.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 16-18 Mar.
A large, narrow coronal hole spans from the western solar hemisphere
and back across the southern solar hemisphere. On UT day 15-Mar the
solar wind speed was strong with a slowly declining trend due
to the reducing influence of the wind stream from this coronal
hole. The solar wind speed ranged from 680-613 km/s. The solar
wind speed is currently at 613 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +5 to -5 nT. The Bz component fluctuated mildly
southward during the UT day. The solar wind is expected to continue
to remain elevated on 16-Mar, with an ongoing slow declining
trend. The possible weak glancing blow CME arrival on 15-Mar
did not eventuate. The GOES geosynchronous 2MeV electron flux
is currently elevated above 1000 particles/(cm2 s sr). Elevated
electron flux is statistically associated with an increased risk
of geosynchronous orbiting satellite operational anomalies.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Mar : A K
Australian Region 11 32233223
Cocos Island 7 22132222
Darwin 11 23233223
Townsville 12 32234223
Learmonth 10 22234222
Alice Springs 11 32233223
Gingin 11 32233223
Canberra 11 32233223
Kennaook Cape Grim 12 33233223
Hobart 12 33233223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Mar :
Macquarie Island 20 23245433
Casey 23 35543233
Mawson 30 44443455
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Mar :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 40 6654 5434
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Mar 13 G0
17 Mar 8 G0
18 Mar 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed on UT day 15-Mar
in the Australian region. G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are generally
expected over 16-18 Mar as the coronal hole wind stream effects
decline. The possible weak CME arrival on 15-Mar did not eventuate.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
17 Mar Normal Normal Fair-normal
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were fair to normal
on UT day 15-Mar. HF radio propagation conditions are expected
to be fair to normal on 16-Mar, improving to normal for 17-18
Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Mar 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 98
Mar 87
Apr 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Mar 85 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
17 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
18 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 15-Mar were mostly near predicted monthly values,
with 15% depressions at Hobart and Canberra. Strong spread F
was observed at Hobart during predawn hours. Southern Australian
region MUFs are 15% depressed after local dawn this morning.
Southern Australian region HF conditions may be mildly degraded
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values over 17-18 Mar,
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 672 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 293000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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