[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 17 July 26 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jul 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Jul 18 09:30:50 AEST 2026


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JULY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jul             19 Jul             20 Jul
Activity     R0                 R0, chance of R1   R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             120/72

COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 17-Jul was at the R0 
level, with no significant flaring activity. There are currently 
two numbered active regions (ARs) visible on the solar disk. 
Region 4489 (S07E14, beta) is the largest on the disk and was 
mostly stable over the UT day. Region 4491 (S11E48, alpha) showed 
some decay. An unnumbered region is visible near S17E38 (alpha) 
and has shown mild spot growth. Solar flare activity is expected 
to be at the R0 level on 18-Jul, increasing to R0, with a chance 
of R1 over 19-20 Jul due to a new region rotating onto the visible 
disk. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT 
day 17-Jul. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected 
over 18-20 Jul. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) 
have been observed. An east-directed CME was observed, visible 
in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 17/0012UT. This CME is considered 
to be a farside event and therefore not geoeffective. Similarly, 
a west-directed CME observed at 17/1800UT is considered farside 
and not Earth-directed. The solar wind speed on UT day 17-Jul 
decreased, ranging from 430 to 350 km/s and is currently near 
350 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength 
(IMF, Bt) was 4 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range 
was -4 to +3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at 
background levels over 18-20 Jul.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: G0

Estimated Indices 17 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   01101100
      Cocos Island         1   01110100
      Darwin               0   01100000
      Townsville           2   11101101
      Learmonth            3   11111210
      Alice Springs        1   11100000
      Gingin               2   01101200
      Canberra             0   00001000
      Kennaook Cape Grim   0   00001100
      Hobart               1   01001100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00001000
      Casey                5   13221210
      Mawson               9   22211341

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              0   2322 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jul     5    G0
19 Jul     4    G0
20 Jul     5    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the planetary, 
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 17-Jul. G0 planetary 
geomagnetic conditions are expected over 18-20 Jul.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Global high-frequency (HF) radio propagation conditions 
were normal to fair on UT day 17-Jul, with some degradations 
observed across southern hemisphere regions. Global HF propagation 
conditions are expected to be normal over 18-20 Jul.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Jul    59

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      81
Jul      66
Aug      63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jul    55    Near predicted monthly values
19 Jul    55    Near predicted monthly values
20 Jul    55    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region on UT day 17-Jul were mostly near predicted monthly values, 
with depressions up to 20% observed during local night hours 
in the northern Australian region. Strong spread-F was observed 
across the Australian region during local night hours. MUFs are 
forecast to be near predicted monthly values over 18-20 Jul, 
with some depressions possible during local night hours.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jul
Speed: 457 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:   242000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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