[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 July 26 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jul 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Jul 17 09:30:44 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JULY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul
Activity R0 R0 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 115/66
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 16-Jul was at the R0
level, with a C5.3 flare peaking at 16/2135UT from the eastern
limb, the largest flare observed. There are currently four active
sunspot regions on the visible disk, with Active Region (AR)
4489 (S13E28, alpha) being the largest. All regions are magnetically
simple, and are either stable or in decay. Activity on the eastern
limb, as well as data from Solar Orbiter, suggests a new active
region may rotate onto the front side of the disk within the
next two days. Solar flare activity is forecast to be at the
R0 level on 17-19 Jul, with a chance of R1 on 19-Jul as this
new region becomes visible. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
were observed on 16-Jul, with S0 conditions forecast over 17-19
Jul. No new coronal mass ejections were observed in the past
24 hours. The solar wind speed declined over 16-Jul, as the high
speed wind stream effects from a small equatorial coronal hole
continued to subside. The solar wind speed declined from 450-480
km/s early in the UT day to currently be at 420-430 km/s. The
interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked early
in the UT day at 7 nT. The north-south component (Bz) ranged
between -5 and +5 nT over this time, with an extended period
of southward Bz between 16/0245UT and 16/0335UT. The solar wind
is expected to continue to decline toward background conditions
over 17-19 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 12112010
Cocos Island 3 12112010
Darwin 3 12112011
Townsville 4 22112021
Learmonth 4 22112020
Alice Springs 3 12112011
Gingin 4 22112020
Canberra 2 12111010
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 12112010
Hobart 2 12111010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 02011000
Casey 7 23321021
Mawson 22 55332143
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 3433 321-
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jul 5 G0
18 Jul 5 G0
19 Jul 4 G0
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
at the G0 level on UT day 16-Jul, with G0 conditions also reported
at the planetary level. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with some intervals of G1 reported at Mawson.
G0 conditions are forecast over 17-19 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Fair Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Global high-frequency (HF) radio propagation conditions
were fair on UT day 16-Jul, with widespread degradations observed
across northern hemisphere regions. Global HF propagation conditions
are expected to trend toward normal over 17-Jul, with mostly
normal conditions forecast on 18-19 Jul.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jul 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 81
Jul 66
Aug 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 16-Jul were mostly near predicted values, with
depressions up to 15% observed during local night hours in the
northern Australian region. Strong spread-F was observed across
the Australian region during local night hours, and sporadic-E
was also observed at several sites including Brisbane, Townsville,
and Norfolk Island. MUFs are forecast to be near predicted monthly
values over 17-19 Jul, with some depressions and spread-F possible
during local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed: 469 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 177000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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