[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 July 26 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jul 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Jul 16 09:30:50 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JULY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 110/60 115/66
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R0 level on UT day 15-Jul,
with a C9.0 flare peaking at 15/2155UT from the eastern limb
being the largest observed. There are currently four active sunspot
regions on the visible solar disk. The two numbered regions,
Active Regions (AR) 4482 (S08W75, alpha) and 4489 (S07E40, alpha)
have remained stable over the past UT day. Two new regions have
appeared over the past 24 hours. The first has appeared at N10E30,
and appears to have a beta magnetic classification. The second
region has rotated from the eastern limb at S12E75 with the magnetic
classification dominated by limb foreshortening. This location
is coincident with the C9.0 flare, with part of this region likely
yet to rotate onto the front side of the disk. Solar flare activity
is forecast to be at the R0 level, with a chance of R1, over
16-18 Jul, given the flare potential of this new region. S0 solar
radiation storm conditions were observed across 15-Jul, with
the proton flux consistent with background levels throughout
the past UT day. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are forecast
throughout 16-18 Jul. No geoeffective coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) were observed over the previous UT day. Two west-directed,
low-velocity CMEs were visible from 15/0315UT and 15/1036UT in
SOHO/LASCO, following eruptions visible on the western limb at
15/0312UT and 15/0800UT respectively. The first event was determined
to be a far side event, and the second event was modelled to
miss the Earth. The solar wind speed was mildly elevated on UT
day 15-Jul, following several previous glancing CME impacts during
the previous days, as well as high speed wind stream effects
from two small coronal holes. The solar wind speed began the
UT day at 460-480 km/s, and slowly declined to currently range
between 420 km/s and 450 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field
strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 11 nT early in the UT day, with
the north-south component (Bz) ranging between -8 and +11 nT
over the UT day, with a period of southward Bz between 15/0334UT
and 15/0445UT. The solar wind speed is forecast to slowly trend
toward background values over 16-18 Jul, as the ongoing effects
of the coronal hole high speed wind streams continue to wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Jul : A K
Australian Region 9 23333110
Cocos Island 5 22222210
Darwin 10 23333211
Townsville 10 23333212
Learmonth 10 33333201
Alice Springs 8 23333100
Gingin 7 22323110
Canberra 7 23233100
Kennaook Cape Grim 8 23323110
Hobart 6 23223100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jul :
Macquarie Island 9 13334000
Casey 9 33323110
Mawson 24 44642223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 7 2222 122-
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jul 8 G0
17 Jul 6 G0
18 Jul 6 G0
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
at the G0 level throughout UT day 15-Jul, with G0 geomagnetic
conditions also recorded at the planetary level. Mostly G0 conditions
were reported in the Antarctic region, with an isolated G2 interval
observed at Mawson. G0 conditions are forecast over 16-18 Jul,
with no significant geomagnetic activity forecast.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal-fair Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Global high-frequency (HF) radio propagation conditions
were normal to fair over UT day 15-Jul, with degradations observed
across northern hemisphere mid- and high-latitude regions. Global
HF propagation conditions are expected to improve over 16-18
Jul, with mostly normal conditions forecast over this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jul 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 81
Jul 66
Aug 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted values on 15-Jul, with some
depressions observed during local night hours in the Northern
Australian region. Strong spread-F was observed across the Australian
region, and sporadic-E was also observed at several sites including
Brisbane, Perth, and Niue Island. MUFs are forecast to remain
near predicted monthly values over 16-18 Jul, with spread-F likely
during local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 399 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 94100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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