[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 July 26 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jul 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Jul 14 09:30:50 AEST 2026


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JULY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jul:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul: 103/52


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Jul             15 Jul             16 Jul
Activity     R0, chance R1      R0, chance R1      R0
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Jul was R0, with no solar 
flares. There are currently four numbered sunspots on the solar 
disk, but all regions are currently stable. Solar activity is 
expected to be R0, chance R1 over 14-16 Jul.

 No CMEs were observed on UT day 13-Jul.

 S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 13-Jul.
 S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 14-16 Jul. 

The solar wind environment on UT day 13-Jul was 
mildly disturbed from 1400 UT, likely due to a recent CME weakly 
glancing the Earth. The solar wind speed ranged between 415 and 
430 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, 
Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was 
+1 to -5 nT. The solar wind may be intermittently disturbed over 
14-15 Jul, although weakly, due to further glancing blows. Solar 
wind conditions are expected to be at background levels on 16-Jul.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: G0

Estimated Indices 13 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11112222
      Cocos Island         5   11112222
      Darwin               5   21112222
      Townsville           6   22112222
      Learmonth            8   22113223
      Alice Springs        5   11112222
      Gingin               8   11113233
      Canberra             4   11012222
      Kennaook Cape Grim   6   12112322
      Hobart               6   12112322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     6   01023232
      Casey                6   12112223
      Mawson              24   33312356

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jul : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             18   4234 5323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Jul     8    G0
15 Jul    10    G0
16 Jul    10    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 13-Jul. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic region. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are 
expected over 14-16 Jul. Several weak CME arrivals are possible 
over this period, but are not expected to induce geomagnetic 
conditions above G0.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jul      Fair           Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
15 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
16 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 13-Jul were 
mostly normal to mildly degraded across the globe. HF propagation 
conditions over 14-16 Jul may be mildly degraded due to possible 
weak CME arrivals, but normal during daylight hours.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Jul    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      81
Jul      66
Aug      63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
15 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values
16 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region on UT day 13-Jul were near predicted values to 20% depressed. 
HF conditions in most Australian sites were degraded during local 
dawn hours with significant spread-F. MUFs are expected to be 
mostly near predicted monthly values over 14-16 Jul, with residual 
depressions possible on 14-Jul up to 15%. Mildly degraded HF 
conditions are possible during local dawn hours.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jul
Speed: 512 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:    97700 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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