[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 July 26 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jul 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Jul 13 09:30:51 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JULY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0811UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 115/66
COMMENT: Solar flare activity reached the R1 level on UT day
12-Jul, with an M1.1 flare from Active Region (AR) 4485 (S09W86,
beta) peaking at 12/0811UT. This region is one of four sunspot
regions on the visible disk, and will soon rotate over the western
limb. AR 4482 (S08W32, beta) is the largest region on the visible
disk, and has exhibited mild growth in trailing spots over the
past UT day. The other regions on the disk are both in decay.
Solar flare activity is forecast to be at the R0 level over 13-15
Jul, with a chance of R1 on 13-Jul before AR 4485 rotates off
the disk. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were reported throughout
12-Jul, with the solar proton flux at background levels. S0 solar
radiation storm conditions are forecast over 13-15 Jul. No significant
coronal mass ejection (CME) impacts were observed over 12-Jul.
A medium-velocity west-directed CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO
from 12/0114UT following a C5.9 flare from AR 4485. A second
low-velocity northwest-directed CME was also visible in SOHO
from 12/1448UT following a filament liftoff visible in GONG/Halpha
imaging at N03W57 from 12/1230UT. Modelling of these events suggests
both CMEs will pass ahead of the Earth. A small amount of material
may connect with the Earth on 15-Jul, but this is not expected
to be significant. The solar wind speed declined over 12-Jul,
as influences from the coronal hole high speed wind stream continued
to wane. The solar wind speed declined from 570 km/s early in
the UT day to currently range between 460 and 480 km/s. The interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) increased during 12-Jul, peaking
at 8 nT, likely due to the glancing impact of a CME first observed
on 09-Jul. The north-south component (Bz) of the IMF ranged between
-7 and +5 nT over the UT day, with an extended period of significant
southward Bz between 12/0930UT and 12/1130UT. The solar wind
speed is expected to continue to decline over 13-15 Jul, as the
effects of the CME impact and high speed wind stream continue
to abate. A small increase in the wind speed is possible on 15-Jul
due to the glancing impacts of the CMEs first observed on 12-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Jul : A K
Australian Region 15 32344331
Cocos Island 11 32333231
Darwin 12 32333331
Townsville 16 32344332
Learmonth 17 32444332
Alice Springs 15 32344331
Gingin 17 32344342
Canberra 12 22343321
Kennaook Cape Grim 14 22344331
Hobart 13 22344321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jul :
Macquarie Island 25 11365520
Casey 14 33343231
Mawson 40 45644355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jul :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 20 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 7 2221 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jul 14 G0
14 Jul 8 G0
15 Jul 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 44 was issued on 12 July and
is current for 12-13 Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 12-Jul. G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed at the planetary level, with a weak (11nT) impulse
observed from 1402UT, likely due to the partial impact of a CME
first observed on 09-Jul. G1-G2 conditions were reported in the
Antarctic region. G0 conditions are forecast over 13-15 Jul,
with glancing impacts of CMEs first observed on 12-Jul not forecast
to cause any significant geomagnetic disturbances.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Global high frequency (HF) radio propagation conditions
were fair to normal over UT day 12-Jul, with some degradations
seen in the Asian and North American regions, particularly at
higher latitudes. HF radio propagation conditions are expected
to be normal to fair on 13-Jul, rising toward normal conditions
over 14-15 Jul.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jul 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 81
Jul 66
Aug 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were near predicted monthly values during daylight hours
on 12-Jul, with depressions of up to 20% reported in the northern
Australian region during local night hours. Some spread-F was
observed during local night hours, with strong spread-F reported
in Hobart. Sporadic E was also observed at Darwin and Niue Island.
MUFs are forecast to be near predicted values over 13-15 Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 522 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 170000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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