[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 July 26 issued 2330 UT on 11 Jul 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Jul 12 09:30:52 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JULY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JULY - 14 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jul: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 115/66
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 11-Jul was at the R0
level, with no significant flares observed throughout the UT
day. There are currently four sunspot regions on the disk, with
Active Region (AR) 4482 (S08W19, beta) being the largest. This
spot has shown decay in trailing spots over the previous UT day.
Previously flare-active region 4485 (S09W72, beta) has remained
largely stable over 11-Jul, and will soon rotate off the visible
solar disk. A new region, AR 4488, appeared during the past UT
day at N23W12, and currently exhibits a beta magnetic classification.
Solar flare activity is forecast at the R0 level, with a chance
of R1 over 12-13 Jul given the flare history of AR 4485. This
will decrease to R0 on 14-Jul as this region moves off the visible
disk. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 11-Jul,
with S0 conditions forecast for 12-14 Jul. No new geoeffective
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed over the past
24 hours in available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed
slowly declined across the first half of UT day 11-Jul as the
effects of a coronal hole high speed wind stream waned. The solar
wind speed began the day at 580 km/s, declining to 490 km/s.
The solar wind speed then slowly increased after 11/1500UT, and
is currently ranging between 530-550 km/s. The interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 7 nT, with the north-south
component (Bz) ranging between -4 and +4 nT over the UT day.
The solar wind speed is forecast to rise on 12-Jul due to a glancing
impact of a CME first observed on 09-Jul, before declining over
13-14 Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 11 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 11211220
Cocos Island 2 10110120
Darwin 3 11211110
Townsville 4 11211221
Learmonth 5 22211220
Alice Springs 3 11201220
Gingin 5 21211230
Canberra 4 11301120
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 21212221
Hobart 6 21302221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jul :
Macquarie Island 5 21311211
Casey 10 33222232
Mawson 30 35433364
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jul :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12 2343 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jul 20 G0-G1
13 Jul 14 G0, chance of G1
14 Jul 8 G0
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
at the G0 level over UT day 11-Jul, with G0 conditions also reported
at the planetary level. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with G1-G2 conditions recorded at Mawson.
G0-G1 conditions are forecast for 12-Jul due to an anticipated
glancing CME impact. G0, with a chance of G1 conditions are forecast
for 13-Jul, with G0 conditions forecast for 14-Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Fair Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Fair Fair Fair
13 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Global high-frequency propagation conditions were mostly
fair across UT day 11-Jul, with mild degradations seen across
the globe throughout the day. Fair conditions are forecast to
continue during 12-Jul due to forecast geomagnetic activity,
before trending toward normal conditions over 13-14 Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jul 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 81
Jul 66
Aug 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jul 47 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
13 Jul 55 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jul 57 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during local
daylight hours over 11-Jul, with depressions of 15-25% observed
across the Australian region and Niue Island during local night
hours. Spread-F was also observed during local night hours in
the Australian region, and sporadic E was reported at Niue Island.
MUFs are forecast to be up to 10-15% depressed over 12-Jul due
to forecast geomagnetic activity. MUFs will then improve toward
predicted values over 13-14 Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jul
Speed: 597 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 279000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list