[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 July 26 issued 2341 UT on 10 Jul 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Jul 11 09:41:33 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JULY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 10-Jul was at the R0
level, with a C6.0 flare peaking at 10/1459UT from Active Region
(AR) 4485 (S09W58, beta), the largest recorded. This region is
one of four on the visible disk, and has shown some mild growth
over the past UT day. AR 4482 (S08W05, beta) is the largest on
the disk, and has shown some decay over the same period. All
other regions are either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity
is forecast to remain at the R0-R1 level over 11-12 Jul, due
to the flare activity of AR 4485. This will decrease to R0 on
13-Jul as this region rotates off the front side of the solar
disk. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed throughout
UT day 10-Jul, with the proton flux consistent with background
values. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are forecast for
11-13 Jul. No new geoeffective coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
were observed over the previous 24 hours. A low-velocity east-directed
CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO from 10/1326UT following a filament
eruption visible in GONG/Halpha imaging at N03E62 from 10/1257UT.
A southwest-directed CME was also observed in SOHO/LASCO starting
from 10/1524UT following the C6.0 flare. Both of these CMEs have
been modelled to miss Earth. Further modelling of the CME activity
from 09-Jul suggests a glancing impact from the CME visible in
Stereo-A from 09/0753UT at 12/0800 +/-10 hours. The solar wind
speed was elevated across UT day 10-Jul due to ongoing high speed
wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal hole. The solar
wind speed broadly ranged between 560-620 km/s over the UT day.
The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at
12 nT, with the north-south component (Bz) ranging between -7
and +7 nT over the UT day. Sporadic periods of southward Bz were
also observed between 10/0505UT and 10/0758UT. The solar wind
is expected to slowly decline over 11-12 Jul, before increasing
late on 12-Jul and 13-Jul due to a glancing impact of a CME first
observed on 09-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Jul : A K
Australian Region 9 13333112
Cocos Island 5 12322001
Darwin 6 12323001
Townsville 11 13433112
Learmonth 8 22333102
Alice Springs 7 13323002
Gingin 8 12333112
Canberra 9 03433011
Kennaook Cape Grim 11 13433112
Hobart 11 13433112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jul :
Macquarie Island 18 22455211
Casey 10 23333212
Mawson 29 35542226
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 46 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 16 3124 2344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jul 8 G0
12 Jul 14 G0-G1
13 Jul 14 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
at the G0 level on UT day 10-Jul, with G0 conditions also reported
at the planetary scale. G1 conditions were recorded in the Antarctic
region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are forecast for 11-Jul. This
will rise to G0-G1 on 12-Jul, and G0, with chance of G1 on 13-Jul,
due to a glancing CME impact forecast to arrive on 12-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
12 Jul Normal Normal Fair-normal
13 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
COMMENT: Global high-frequency propagation conditions were fair
to normal on UT day 10-Jul, with fair conditions reported at
high latitudes. Degraded conditions were mostly observed across
northern hemisphere sites, and improved throughout the UT day.
Ionospheric conditions are forecast to continue to improve toward
normal conditions over 11-12 Jul, with more degradations forecast
on 13-Jul due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jul 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 81
Jul 66
Aug 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jul 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were near predicted monthly values on UT day 10-Jul. Significant
spread-F was observed in the southern Australian region, and
also at Niue Island. Sporadic E was also observed at Darwin.
MUFs are forecast to remain near predicted monthly values over
11-12 Jul, with some mild depressions possible on 13-Jul due
to forecast geomagnetic activity. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.66E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.76E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.58E+07 (normal fluence)
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 261000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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