[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 July 26 issued 2330 UT on 09 Jul 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Jul 10 09:30:50 AEST 2026


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JULY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JULY - 12 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jul:  R1

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    0227UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jul: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jul             11 Jul             12 Jul
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 9-Jul was R1, with an 
isolated M1.1 level solar flare from active sunspot region (AR) 
4482 (S08E10, beta). There are currently five numbered sunspot 
regions on the solar disk, AR 4485 (S09W43, beta) has shown some 
strengthening in its trailing regions, but this region has not 
yet produced any flares. Other regions are either stable or in 
decay. Solar flare activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 10-12 
Jul.

 A disturbance in the corona was noted near AR 4485 from 
07:05 UT. At least one CME eruption from this disturbance can 
be confirmed based on SOHO imagery at 08:12 UT with a weak passing 
influence late on 12-Jul. A second possible eruption in STEREO-A 
images can be seen from 07:53 UT, although analysis is going 
to determine if this related.

 S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 9-Jul. 
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 10-12 Jul. 

The solar wind environment on UT day 9-Jul was mildly disturbed 
due to ongoing coronal hole effects. The solar wind speed began
 the day from near 330 km/s, increasing to near 560 km/s. The peak
 total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the 
north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +8 to -8 nT. The solar
 wind is expected to remain enhanced on 10-Jul, returning to near 
background levels on 11-Jul. A weak disturbance is expected late 
on 12-Jul due to a CME arrival.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jul: G0

Estimated Indices 09 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   21241333
      Cocos Island         8   11131233
      Darwin               9   21142322
      Townsville          10   21242322
      Learmonth           12   21242333
      Alice Springs       12   21242333
      Gingin              11   21231334
      Canberra            10   21141323
      Kennaook Cape Grim  11   21241333
      Hobart              10   21141323    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    16   10253433
      Casey               14   33332333
      Mawson              31   52343356

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jul : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               7   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               9   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12   3333 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jul    16    G0, chance G1
11 Jul    12    G0
12 Jul    14    G0, chance G1

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed on UT day 9-Jul 
in the Australian region. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic region. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are 
expected on 10-Jul, with a chance for G1. G0 conditions expected 
on 11-Jul and most of 12-Jul, with possible G1 periods at the 
end of 12-Jul due to a CME arrival.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
11 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 9-Jul were 
mostly normal with some brief degradations across the globe. 
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be similar over 
10-11 Jul, improving back to normal by 12-Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Jul    67

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      81
Jul      66
Aug      63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
11 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
12 Jul    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region on UT day 9-Jul were mostly near predicted values to 15% 
enhanced. Spread-F was present at Hobart and Brisbane during 
local dawn hours. MUFs are expected to become mildly depressed, 
up tp 10-15%, during local night and dawn hours over 10-11 Jul. 
MUFs likely to be back to predicted values by 12-Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jul
Speed: 390 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:   150000 K  Bz:  -5 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list