[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 July 26 issued 2330 UT on 09 Jul 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Jul 10 09:30:50 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JULY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JULY - 12 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0227UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jul: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 9-Jul was R1, with an
isolated M1.1 level solar flare from active sunspot region (AR)
4482 (S08E10, beta). There are currently five numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk, AR 4485 (S09W43, beta) has shown some
strengthening in its trailing regions, but this region has not
yet produced any flares. Other regions are either stable or in
decay. Solar flare activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 10-12
Jul.
A disturbance in the corona was noted near AR 4485 from
07:05 UT. At least one CME eruption from this disturbance can
be confirmed based on SOHO imagery at 08:12 UT with a weak passing
influence late on 12-Jul. A second possible eruption in STEREO-A
images can be seen from 07:53 UT, although analysis is going
to determine if this related.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 9-Jul.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 10-12 Jul.
The solar wind environment on UT day 9-Jul was mildly disturbed
due to ongoing coronal hole effects. The solar wind speed began
the day from near 330 km/s, increasing to near 560 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the
north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +8 to -8 nT. The solar
wind is expected to remain enhanced on 10-Jul, returning to near
background levels on 11-Jul. A weak disturbance is expected late
on 12-Jul due to a CME arrival.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 09 Jul : A K
Australian Region 11 21241333
Cocos Island 8 11131233
Darwin 9 21142322
Townsville 10 21242322
Learmonth 12 21242333
Alice Springs 12 21242333
Gingin 11 21231334
Canberra 10 21141323
Kennaook Cape Grim 11 21241333
Hobart 10 21141323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jul :
Macquarie Island 16 10253433
Casey 14 33332333
Mawson 31 52343356
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jul :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12 3333 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jul 16 G0, chance G1
11 Jul 12 G0
12 Jul 14 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed on UT day 9-Jul
in the Australian region. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected on 10-Jul, with a chance for G1. G0 conditions expected
on 11-Jul and most of 12-Jul, with possible G1 periods at the
end of 12-Jul due to a CME arrival.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 9-Jul were
mostly normal with some brief degradations across the globe.
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be similar over
10-11 Jul, improving back to normal by 12-Jul.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jul 67
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 81
Jul 66
Aug 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
11 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
12 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 9-Jul were mostly near predicted values to 15%
enhanced. Spread-F was present at Hobart and Brisbane during
local dawn hours. MUFs are expected to become mildly depressed,
up tp 10-15%, during local night and dawn hours over 10-11 Jul.
MUFs likely to be back to predicted values by 12-Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jul
Speed: 390 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 150000 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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