[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 July 26 issued 2330 UT on 06 Jul 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Jul 7 09:30:55 AEST 2026


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JULY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul: 125/78


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jul             08 Jul             09 Jul
Activity     R1                 R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R0 level on UT day 06-Jul, 
with a C9.6 flare from the western limb the largest observed. 
There are currently four active sunspot regions on the solar 
disk, with Active Region (AR) 4482 (S08E53, beta-gamma) being 
the largest and most magnetically complex. This region has remained 
mostly stable over the last 24 hours, as it continues to rotate 
from the eastern limb. Previously flare-active AR 4478 (S06W85, 
alpha) has almost completely rotated over the western limb. All 
other regions are magnetically simple, and are either stable 
or in decay. Solar flare activity is forecast at the R1 level 
over 07-Jul, declining to R0-R1 on 08-09 Jul, as flare-active 
sunspot regions continue to rotate off the visible solar disk. 
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed throughout 
UT day 06-Jul, with S0 conditions forecast over 07-09 Jul. No 
geoeffective coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed over 
the last 24 hours. A low-velocity, east-directed CME was observed 
in SOHO/LASCO from 06/0624UT, following a filament eruption visible 
in GONG Halpha imagery from 06/0453UT. This event has been assessed 
as passing behind the Earth and not geoeffective. The solar wind 
speed generally declined over UT day 06-Jul following previous 
CME impacts. A brief increase in solar wind speed was observed 
from 06/1635UT, likely associated with the past CME impacts, 
but declined soon after, and is currently ranging between 400-430 
km/s. The solar wind speed is expected to continue declining 
on 07-Jul, before a mild increase is expected with a further 
glancing CME impact forecast late in the UT day from a CME first 
observed on 03-Jul. The solar wind speed will remain elevated 
on 08-09 Jul, with a coronal hole high speed wind stream forecast 
to connect with Earth late on 08-Jul.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: G0

Estimated Indices 06 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11101120
      Cocos Island         1   11110010
      Darwin               2   11101110
      Townsville           2   11102110
      Learmonth            2   11101120
      Alice Springs        1   11001110
      Gingin               3   11101121
      Canberra             2   11002120
      Kennaook Cape Grim   3   11112120
      Hobart               3   11112120    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     3   21102120
      Casey                6   23221121
      Mawson              30   53321456

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jul : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             17   3334 343-     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jul    15    G0-G1
08 Jul    15    G0, chance of G1
09 Jul    16    G0, chance of G1

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
at the G0 level on UT day 06-Jul, with G0 conditions also reported 
at the planetary level. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in 
the Antarctic region, with some G1-G2 intervals observed at Mawson. 
G0-G1 conditions are forecast for 07-Jul due to a glancing CME 
impact expected late in the UT day. G0 geomagnetic conditions, 
with a chance of G1, are forecast for 08-09 Jul, due to a coronal 
hole high speed wind stream forecast to connect with Earth late 
on 08-Jul.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair           Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
08 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
09 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal

COMMENT: Global high-frequency (HF) propagation conditions were 
mostly fair across UT day 06-Jul, with some degradations seen 
across multiple regions due to past geomagnetic activity. Significant 
degradations were observed in the European region throughout 
the UT day. Global HF conditions are expected to trend towards 
normal on 07-Jul, before further geomagnetic activity on 08-09 
Jul will cause conditions to degrade to fair to normal. Shortwave 
fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Jul    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      81
Jul      66
Aug      63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul    70    Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
09 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region were mostly near predicted values on UT day 06-Jul, with 
large day-night variations reported at Niue Island. Significant 
spread-F was observed across the Australian region, especially 
in the southern Australian region. Depressions of up to 15% were 
also reported in the Antarctic region. MUFs are expected to trend 
towards predicted values over much of 07-Jul, with forecast geomagnetic 
activity expected to cause depressions of 10-15% on 08-Jul. Conditions 
are then likely to improve on 09-Jul, with some mild depressions 
possible due to a coronal hole high speed wind stream. Shortwave 
fadeouts are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C2.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 486 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    63900 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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