[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 July 26 issued 2330 UT on 06 Jul 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Jul 7 09:30:55 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JULY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul
Activity R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R0 level on UT day 06-Jul,
with a C9.6 flare from the western limb the largest observed.
There are currently four active sunspot regions on the solar
disk, with Active Region (AR) 4482 (S08E53, beta-gamma) being
the largest and most magnetically complex. This region has remained
mostly stable over the last 24 hours, as it continues to rotate
from the eastern limb. Previously flare-active AR 4478 (S06W85,
alpha) has almost completely rotated over the western limb. All
other regions are magnetically simple, and are either stable
or in decay. Solar flare activity is forecast at the R1 level
over 07-Jul, declining to R0-R1 on 08-09 Jul, as flare-active
sunspot regions continue to rotate off the visible solar disk.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed throughout
UT day 06-Jul, with S0 conditions forecast over 07-09 Jul. No
geoeffective coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed over
the last 24 hours. A low-velocity, east-directed CME was observed
in SOHO/LASCO from 06/0624UT, following a filament eruption visible
in GONG Halpha imagery from 06/0453UT. This event has been assessed
as passing behind the Earth and not geoeffective. The solar wind
speed generally declined over UT day 06-Jul following previous
CME impacts. A brief increase in solar wind speed was observed
from 06/1635UT, likely associated with the past CME impacts,
but declined soon after, and is currently ranging between 400-430
km/s. The solar wind speed is expected to continue declining
on 07-Jul, before a mild increase is expected with a further
glancing CME impact forecast late in the UT day from a CME first
observed on 03-Jul. The solar wind speed will remain elevated
on 08-09 Jul, with a coronal hole high speed wind stream forecast
to connect with Earth late on 08-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11101120
Cocos Island 1 11110010
Darwin 2 11101110
Townsville 2 11102110
Learmonth 2 11101120
Alice Springs 1 11001110
Gingin 3 11101121
Canberra 2 11002120
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 11112120
Hobart 3 11112120
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jul :
Macquarie Island 3 21102120
Casey 6 23221121
Mawson 30 53321456
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jul :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 17 3334 343-
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jul 15 G0-G1
08 Jul 15 G0, chance of G1
09 Jul 16 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
at the G0 level on UT day 06-Jul, with G0 conditions also reported
at the planetary level. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with some G1-G2 intervals observed at Mawson.
G0-G1 conditions are forecast for 07-Jul due to a glancing CME
impact expected late in the UT day. G0 geomagnetic conditions,
with a chance of G1, are forecast for 08-09 Jul, due to a coronal
hole high speed wind stream forecast to connect with Earth late
on 08-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Fair-normal Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
09 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Global high-frequency (HF) propagation conditions were
mostly fair across UT day 06-Jul, with some degradations seen
across multiple regions due to past geomagnetic activity. Significant
degradations were observed in the European region throughout
the UT day. Global HF conditions are expected to trend towards
normal on 07-Jul, before further geomagnetic activity on 08-09
Jul will cause conditions to degrade to fair to normal. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jul 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 81
Jul 66
Aug 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 70 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted values on UT day 06-Jul, with
large day-night variations reported at Niue Island. Significant
spread-F was observed across the Australian region, especially
in the southern Australian region. Depressions of up to 15% were
also reported in the Antarctic region. MUFs are expected to trend
towards predicted values over much of 07-Jul, with forecast geomagnetic
activity expected to cause depressions of 10-15% on 08-Jul. Conditions
are then likely to improve on 09-Jul, with some mild depressions
possible due to a coronal hole high speed wind stream. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 486 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 63900 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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