[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 July 26 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jul 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Jul 6 09:30:52 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JULY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jul: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 04/2349UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.4 0031UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.3 0433UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.7 0539UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 0726UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.4 1100UT possible lower European
M1.4 1632UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M5.3 1757UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.4 1907UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.0 2123UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 5-Jul was R2, with eight
low-level M-class solar flares and one moderate M5.5 class solar
flare. A majority of these flare events were produced by active
sunspot region (AR) 4479 (N17W89, beta-gamma), although some
contributions came from new region AR 4482 (S08E63, beta-gamma).
There are currently five numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
ARs 4478 (S06W70, beta) and 4479 are due to rotate out of sight
in the next 24 hours, leaving AR 4482 as the most complex region
visible. For this reason, solar flare activity may be R1-R2 over
6-8 Jul, however the frequency is likely to decrease early on
in this period.
A CME launched on 4-Jul associated with the X1.3 flare has now been
analysed and not expected to be geoeffective. Several other CMEs were
observed on UT day 5-Jul, but none are considered to be geoeffective.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 5-Jul.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 6-8 Jul.
The solar wind environment on UT day 5-Jul was mostly near background
levels, as the expected CME arrivals have likely failed to eventuate.
The solar wind solar ranged initially from 570 to now near 440 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and
the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +6 to -5 nT. The solar
wind is expected to be near background levels on 6-Jul. A disturbance
may begin late on 7-Jul due to a glancing blow from a CME launched on 3-Jul,
followed by entry into a coronal hole wind stream late on 8-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Jul : A K
Australian Region 12 33333222
Cocos Island 10 23332222
Darwin 11 33333112
Townsville 13 34333212
Learmonth 13 34333222
Alice Springs 13 34333212
Gingin 14 33333233
Canberra 13 33343212
Kennaook Cape Grim 12 23343222
Hobart 12 23343222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jul :
Macquarie Island 22 33255423
Casey 13 34432212
Mawson 34 24443655
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jul :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 40
Planetary 75 6765 665-
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jul 8 G0
07 Jul 16 G0-G1
08 Jul 19 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 5-Jul. G0-G1 conditions were observed in the
Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 6-Jul,
G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions may begin late on 7-Jul due to an
anticipated glancing impact from a CME launched on 3-Jul. A recurrent
coronal hole wind stream may connect with the Earth late on 8-Jul
to prolong enhanced conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
07 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 5-Jul were
degraded at the beginning of the day, particularly in the northern
hemisphere. Conditions improved to mostly normal by the middle
of the day. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be
normal on 6-Jul and most of 7-Jul; some mild degradations may
begin late on 7-Jul and into 8-Jul.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jul 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 81
Jul 66
Aug 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jul 80 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
07 Jul 85 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 63 was issued on
4 July and is current for 5-6 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
on UT day 5-Jul in the Australian region were mostly enhanced
by up to 20%, although some brief periods during local dawn hours
were depressed in some eastern sites. Conditions are Learmonth
were degraded with sporadic-A present during local night and
dawn hours; conditions in Hobart were also degraded but with
persistent nighttime spread-F. MUFs are expected to respond to
the recent geomagnetic activity by becoming depressed by up to
10-15% over 6-7 Jul. Depressed MUFs may continue into 8-Jul before
recovering due to expected geomagnetic activity over 7-8 Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C4.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jul
Speed: 584 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 101000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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