[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 July 26 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jul 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Jul 5 09:30:47 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JULY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.0 0000UT possible lower West Pacific
M2.1 0113UT possible lower West Pacific
M3.7 0332UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.4 0515UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.8 0807UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.0 0852UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M3.2 1112UT possible lower European
M3.2 1351UT possible lower European
M1.1 1606UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.9 1848UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.5 1936UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
X1.3 2041UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul: 0/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 0/0 0/0 0/0
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 4-Jul was R3, with a total
of sixteen solar flares. A majority of these events were M1,
and often occurring in pairs, with the largest flare of the day
being an isolated X1.3 whose flux was shared between two regions.
Almost all flares originated from active sunspot region (AR) 4479
(N17W76, beta-gamma-delta) with the occasional sympathetic flare
response from AR 4478 (S06W59, beta-gamma). A new region AR 4482
(S06E69, beta) also contributed to the X1.3 class flare today.
Solar activity is expected to be mostly R1-R2 on 5-Jul, as AR4479,
which was partly responsible for the X1.0 flare, is expected
to rotate out of view by 6-Jul. Activity is expected to be R1-R2
over 6-7 Jul due to new region AR 4482.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed on UT day 4-Jul. A CME was
likely launched from near AR 4482 in association with the X1.3 flare,
although no analysis can be carried out at this stage due to lack of images.
A CME mentioned in yesterday's report has been further
analysed as is expected to have a glancing blow at Earth late
on 7-Jul from 1800 UT.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 4-Jul,
although a weak increase to the >10 MeV protons was observed peaking at
1.76 pfu. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 5-7 Jul.
The solar wind environment on UT day 4-Jul was disturbed due to ongoing CME
effects from
3-Jul. The solar wind speed ranged from 560 to 640 km/s and is
currently steady near 570 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 23 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +23 to -19 nT. The solar wind was oriented with
southward Bz from 0050 to 0910 UT. The solar wind environment
is expected to remain disturbed on 5-Jul as further CME arrivals
are expected. The disturbance may continue into 6-Jul, with quiet
conditions early on 7-Jul. Another disturbance is expected late
on 7-Jul due to an anticipated CME arrival.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: G1
Estimated Indices 04 Jul : A K
Australian Region 38 45555543
Cocos Island 29 45435443
Darwin 33 55445443
Townsville 38 55555443
Learmonth 41 55555543
Alice Springs 41 55555543
Gingin 36 45554543
Canberra 37 45555533
Kennaook Cape Grim 49 46665533
Hobart 45 46655533
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jul :
Macquarie Island 66 46676643
Casey 31 54436433
Mawson 65 77455545
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jul :
Darwin NA
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice Springs 6 (Quiet)
Gingin 58 (Unsettled)
Canberra 54 (Unsettled)
Hobart 98 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 42
Planetary 72
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 1111 234-
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jul 28 G1-G2, chance G3
06 Jul 14 G0-G1
07 Jul 29 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 42 was issued on 4 July and
is current for 4-5 Jul. G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 4-Jul. G1-G3 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. The average planetary
scale reached G3. This was due to the arrival of a CME on 3-Jul
which carried prolong southward solar wind Bz conditions. G1-G2
geomagnetic conditions are expected on 5-Jul, with a chance for
G3, due to further CME arrivals expected. G0-G1 conditions are
expected on 6-Jul as CME effects subside, with periods of G1
at the end of 7-Jul due to another anticipated CME impact.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Fair Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Fair Normal-fair Fair
06 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
07 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were degraded across the globe
on UT day 4-Jul, although only mildly so in the northern hemisphere.
HF propagation conditions are expected to be mildly degraded
on UT day 5-Jul, recovering by 6-Jul. Conditions may become mildly
degraded by the end of 7-Jul.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jul 108
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 81
Jul 66
Aug 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jul 75 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
06 Jul 80 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
07 Jul 85 Near predicted monthly values to 10% depressed
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 4-Jul were
variable in the Australian region. MUFs were mostly near predicted
values to enhanced during local day and night hours, but some
depressions were present during local dawn hours. Sporadic-E
was observed in Niue Island; spread-F was observed in Darwin
and overall degraded conditions were observed in Hobart during
local night hours. Further degraded conditions are expected in
the Australian region for HF propagation on 5-Jul. MUFs are expected
to become depressed by 20% over 5-6 Jul, possibly recovering
by 7-Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: 459 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 241000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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