[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 July 26 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jul 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Jul 4 09:30:51 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JULY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jul: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 02/2312UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.4 1313UT possible lower European
M6.8 1811UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
M6.2 1900UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul: 187/140
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Possible
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 185/138 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 3-Jul was R2, with a total
of three M-class flares. There are currently four numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. A majority of the flaring was produced
by active sunspot region (AR) 4479 (N17W63, beta-gamma-delta),
however the M6.8 flare that occurred at 1812 UT was accompanied
by sympathetic flaring from AR 4478 (S06W47, beta-gamma). AR
4479 is still undergoing rapid changes in its trailing spots,
but otherwise all other sunspots are stable. Solar activity is
expected to be R1-R2 over 4-6 Jul.
A CME was associated with the M6.8 flare event, first seen at 1836 UT.
This CME is not likely to be significantly geoeffective, however
further satellite imagery is necessary before a full analysis can
be made. No other potentially Earth-directed CMEs were observed on
UT day 3-Jul.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 3-Jul.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 4-6 Jul.
The solar wind environment became disturbed by 1119 UT on 3-Jul,
likely from the arrival of the CME associated with the X1.1 flare
on 30-Jun. The solar wind speed increased from near 370 km/s
to 580 km/s from this arrival and is on an upward trend. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 19 nT
and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +9 to -13 nT.
The solar wind environment is expected to remain disturbed on
4-Jul due to continuing CME effects, with additional CME arrivals
later in the day. The disturbances are likely to continue into
5-Jul with a slow decline to background conditions by 6-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 10002223
Cocos Island 5 11112222
Darwin 5 11012223
Townsville 6 11013223
Learmonth 6 11103223
Alice Springs 4 10002223
Gingin 5 10102223
Canberra 3 00002122
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 00002212
Hobart 2 00002112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 00012112
Casey 8 12212233
Mawson 12 11123235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jul :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2111 110-
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jul 28 G1-G2
05 Jul 18 G0-G1
06 Jul 12 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 40 was issued on 2 July and
is current for 3-4 Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 3-Jul. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 4-Jul due to the continued effects of a CME which
arrived on 3-Jul. Further CME arrivals are expected on 4-Jul
which may prolonged enhanced conditions. Mostly G0-G1 conditions
are expected over 5-6 Jul as CME effects settle.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Fair Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Fair Normal-fair Fair
05 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
06 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 3-Jul were
variable. Degraded conditions were present in the southern hemisphere
at the beginning of the day while the northern hemisphere had
good conditions; eventually becoming more mild by middle of the
UT day. By the end of the day most areas of the globe were likely
to be degraded.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jul 85
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 81
Jul 66
Aug 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jul 70 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
05 Jul 70 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
06 Jul 75 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 61 was issued on
3 July and is current for 3-4 Jul. ASWFC HF Communications Warning
62 was issued on 3 July and is current for 3-4 Jul. Maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 3-Jul were
depressed up to 20%, particularly by local dawn hours. HF radio
propagation conditions in most Australian conditions became degraded
by late in the day into local dawn hours. Ionospheric scintillation
was observed at Niue Island from 0911 to 0930 UT. Degraded conditions
are likely to carry into 4-Jul and continue into 5-Jul. Conditions
may begin to improve by 6-Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 107000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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