[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 July 26 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jul 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Jul 3 09:30:47 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JULY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JULY - 05 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M8.5 01/2309UT probable lower West Pacific
M1.1 0002UT possible lower West Pacific
M4.2 0156UT possible lower West Pacific
M2.8 1026UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul: 203/154
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 200/152 200/152 190/143
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R1 level on UT day 02-Jul,
with an M1.1 flare peaking at 02/0002UT from Active Region (AR)
4478 (S06W34, beta-gamma-delta), an M4.2 flare peaking at 02/0156UT
from AR 4479 (N17W49, beta-gamma-delta), and an M2.8 flare at
02/1026UT from AR 4480 (S15W61, beta-gamma-delta). There are
currently three sunspot regions on the solar disk, with AR 4478
remaining the largest. It maintains a delta spot, and has remained
mostly stable over the previous UT day. AR 4479 has shown some
decay over the past UT day, but also maintains a delta region.
AR 4480 has shown some growth over the past UT day, and also
appears to contain a delta spot. Solar flare activity is expected
to remain at the R1-R2 level over 03-05 Jul, with all three regions
producing M-class flares over the last 24 hours, and a new sunspot
region, visible with Solar Orbiter, due to rotate over the eastern
limb within the next 48 hours. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
were observed throughout 02-Jul, with the solar proton flux consistent
with background values. S0 solar radiation storm conditions,
with a chance of S1, are forecast over 03-05 Jul due to flare-active
sunspot regions in geoeffective locations on the solar disk.
Two new geoeffective coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed
over the previous UT day. The first, a north-directed medium-velocity
CME, was observed in SOHO/LASCO from 01/2112UT following an M3.5
flare from AR 4479 at 01/1943UT. The second CME, another north-directed
medium-velocity CME, was observed in SOHO/LASCO from 02/0224UT,
following an M4.2 flare from AR 4479 at 02/0156UT. While both
of these CMEs are predominantly north-directed, modelling has suggested
an Earth-directed component. These CMEs are forecast to combine
with a CME first observed on 01/1300UT, with a combined impact
forecast to arrive at 04/2100UT +/- 10 hours. The solar wind
environment on UT day 02-Jul was consistent with background conditions,
with the solar wind speed declining from 400 km/s early in the
UT day to a current value of around 330 km/s. The interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 9 nT, with the north-south
component (Bz) ranging between -2 and +9 nT. The solar wind is
expected to increase on 03-Jul due to the impact of a CME first
observed on 30-Jun. The solar wind will remain elevated over
04-05 Jul, with the combined impact of three further CMEs expected
late on 04-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11110000
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 1 11110000
Townsville 2 21110001
Learmonth 2 21110000
Alice Springs 1 11010000
Gingin 1 11100000
Canberra 0 10000000
Kennaook Cape Grim 0 11000000
Hobart 0 11000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 1 11100101
Mawson 4 00000124
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jul :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 14 5322 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jul 36 G2
04 Jul 28 G1, chance of G2
05 Jul 22 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 40 was issued on 2 July and
is current for 3-4 Jul. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region on 02-Jul were at the G0 level. G0 geomagnetic conditions
were also recorded in the Antarctic region, and at the planetary
level. G2 geomagnetic conditions are forecast on 03-Jul due to
the glancing impact of a CME first observed on 30-Jun. G1 conditions,
with a chance of G2, are forecast for 04-Jul due to the ongoing
geomagnetic activity from this CME, as well as the combined glancing
impact of three CMEs observed on 01-Jul and 02-Jul. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions are forecast on 05-Jul as these conditions subside.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Fair Fair Fair
04 Jul Fair Fair Fair
05 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Global high-frequency propagation conditions were mostly
normal throughout UT day 02-Jul. Propagation conditions are forecast
to decline to fair over 03-Jul due to forecast geomagnetic activity,
with poor conditions possible in some polar regions. This will
improve to fair to normal conditions over 04-05 Jul, with further
geomagnetic activity forecast over this period. Shortwave fadeouts
are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jul 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 81
Jul 66
Aug 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jul 60 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
04 Jul 70 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
05 Jul 70 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were near predicted monthly values over UT day 02-Jul,
with enhancements of up to 20% observed in the southern Australian
region, as well as at Niue Island and in the Antarctic region.
Significant spread-F was observed at sites on the east coast
of Australia. MUFs are forecast to become depressed over 03-Jul
due to forecast geomagnetic activity, with 15-20% depressions
forecast. Mild depressions are expected over 04-05 Jul as this
geomagnetic activity continues. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jul
Speed: 401 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 64900 K Bz: 13 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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