[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 July 26 issued 2336 UT on 01 Jul 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Jul 2 09:36:09 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JULY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0627UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.0 0643UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.5 0735UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.5 0817UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.3 1008UT possible lower European
M1.0 1126UT possible lower European
M1.2 1244UT possible lower European
M1.1 1431UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M2.6 1455UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M3.5 1943UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.8 2022UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M8.5 2309UT probable lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul: 201/153
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 205/156 200/152 195/147
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R2 level on UT day 01-Jul,
with 13 M-class flares, almost entirely produced by Active Region
(AR) 4479 (N17W35, beta-gamma-delta). This activity was highlighted
by an M2.5 flare at 01/0817UT, a long duration M1.2 flare peaking
at 01/1244UT, an M3.5 flare at 01/1943UT, and an M8.5 flare peaking
at 01/2309UT. This region is the most flare active of four currently
on the visible solar disk, and has shown some growth over the
past UT day. The flare activity in AR4479 appears to originate
from two delta spots on the eastern half of the region. Active
Region 4480 (S15W46, gamma) has also shown growth over the same
period. Large region of interest AR 4478 (S06W19, beta-gamma-delta)
has remained stable over the previous UT day, and has yet to
produce any significant flares despite its size and magnetic
complexity. Solar flare activity is forecast to remain at the
R1-R2 level over the period 02-04 Jul, due to the recent flare
activity of AR 4479. Solar radiation storm conditions on UT day
01-Jul were at the S0 level, with the proton flux remaining consistent
with background levels. S0 conditions are forecast over 02-04
Jul. A full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in
SOHO/LASCO in association with the X1.1 flare from AR 4479 on
30-Jun, beginning at 30/2112UT. While the bulk of this CME appears
to be directed northward, a partial impact at Earth is expected
from this CME, with the impact forecast to arrive at 03-Jul at
03/0500UT +/- 10 hours. A separate north-directed partial halo
CME was also observed from 01/1300UT in GOES CCOR1, coincident
with the ongoing flare activity from AR 4479. Detailed analysis
of this event is ongoing due to limited coronagraph imagery,
with preliminary modelling suggesting a partial impact at Earth
on 05-Jul at 05/0200UT. The solar wind on UT day 01-Jul was light
to moderate, with the solar wind speed broadly ranging between
380 and 420 km/s throughout the entire day. The interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 19 nT early in the
UT day, due to the arrival of a CME on 30-Jun. The north-south
component (Bz) was almost exclusively northward, with only a
brief period of southward Bz, ranging between -6 and +18 nT over
the UT day. The solar wind is expected to trend towards background
conditions over 02-Jul, before a CME arrival on 03-Jul will cause
elevated solar wind speeds. These solar wind conditions are expected
to persist into 04-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Jul : A K
Australian Region 12 44213221
Cocos Island 12 44213221
Darwin 16 54223232
Townsville 16 54223231
Learmonth 16 54223232
Alice Springs 14 54213221
Gingin 7 33212120
Canberra 7 33212121
Kennaook Cape Grim 8 34212111
Hobart 8 34112111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jul :
Macquarie Island 3 23100010
Casey 5 33211000
Mawson 15 55212210
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jul :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 10 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 17 0113 3454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jul 10 G0
03 Jul 32 G2
04 Jul 20 G0-G1
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region on UT
day 01-Jul were at the G0 level. Local G1 conditions were observed
early in the UT day at Darwin, Townsville, Learmonth, and Alice
Springs, following the arrival of a CME on 30-Jun. Mostly G0
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with some G1
conditions reported at Mawson. G0 conditions were also reported
at the planetary level. Geomagnetic conditions are forecast to
be at the G0 level on 02-Jul. G2 conditions are forecast on 03-Jul
due to the arrival of a CME first observed on 30-Jun. G0-G1 conditions
are forecast for 04-Jul due to ongoing effects of this CME arrival.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Jul Fair Fair Fair-poor
04 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Global high-frequency radio propagation conditions on
UT day 01-Jul were mostly normal, with some degradations observed
in Northern polar regions, and some depressions observed in European
mid-latitude regions. Global HF propagation conditions are expected
to be mostly normal on 02-Jul, with some degradations likely
on 03-04 Jul, particularly at polar latitudes, due to forecast
geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jul 102
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 81
Jul 66
Aug 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jul 60 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
04 Jul 70 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 60 was issued on
30 June and is current for 1-2 Jul. Maximum Usable Frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were enhanced over UT day 01-Jul,
with enhancements of 20-30% reported across the region. Spread-F
was also present across most of the Australian region during
local night hours, including significant spread-F at Hobart.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted values on 02-Jul, with
some enhancements possible. MUFs are forecast to become 15-20%
depressed on 03-04 Jul due to the arrival of a CME first observed
on 30-Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 451 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 113000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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