[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 July 26 issued 2330 UT on 07 Jul 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Jul 8 09:30:52 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JULY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JULY - 10 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.0 1419UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jul: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul
Activity R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 115/66
COMMENT: Solar flare activity reached the R1 level on UT day
07-Jul due to an M4.0 flare peaking at 07/1419UT from Active
Region (AR) 4482 (S08E38, beta-gamma). This region is the largest
of three numbered and two unnumbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk, and has remained mostly stable over the past UT day. AR
4485 (S09W15) exhibited growth over the same period, while AR
4481 (N14E04) has remained small and magnetically simple. Two
new unnumbered regions appeared on the disk over the past UT
day at N04E39 and S21W42, with both appearing to have a beta
magnetic classification. Solar flare activity is forecast to
be at the R1 level over 08-10 Jul, with a chance of R2, given
the flare potential of AR 4482. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
were observed over 07-Jul. S0 conditions are forecast for 08-10
Jul. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed
on UT day 07-Jul in available coronagraph imagery. The solar
wind speed was light to moderate over the UT day, broadly ranging
between 390 km/s and 450 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field
strength (IMF, Bt) was largely stable throughout the UT day,
peaking at 8 nT, with the north-south component (Bz) ranging
between -5 and +5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to increase
over 08-09 Jul, with a glancing CME impact on 08-Jul, as well
as entry into a coronal hole high speed wind stream late on 08-Jul.
These conditions are expected to persist over 10-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 01000011
Cocos Island 0 01000010
Darwin 0 010000-1
Townsville 2 11000112
Learmonth 2 12100111
Alice Springs 0 00000011
Gingin 2 01000121
Canberra 0 01000000
Kennaook Cape Grim 1 01000111
Hobart 1 01000011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 5 13210112
Mawson 11 32101135
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jul :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 3222 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jul 15 G0, chance of G1
09 Jul 16 G0, chance of G1
10 Jul 12 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 43 was issued on 7 July and
is current for 7-9 Jul. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were at the G0 level on UT day 07-Jul, with G0 conditions
also reported at the planetary level. Mostly G0 conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated G1 interval
recorded at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions, with a chance
of G1, are forecast over 08-09 Jul, due to a possible glancing
CME impact on 08-Jul, as well as Earth's entry into a coronal
hole high speed wind stream late on 08-Jul. G0 conditions are
forecast for 10-Jul as these conditions begin to subside.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
09 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Global high frequency (HF) radio propagation conditions
were fair to normal across UT day 07-Jul, with fair conditions
reported in high latitude regions. Degradations were also reported
in European mid-latitude regions throughout the UT day. Global
HF propagation conditions are forecast to be fair to normal on
08-Jul due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Conditions will
then improve towards normal over 09-10 Jul. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jul 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 81
Jul 66
Aug 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jul 48 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 55 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 64 was issued on
7 July and is current for 7-8 Jul. Maximum Usable Frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 07-Jul were mostly
near predicted values, with some depressions of up to 25% in
the northern Australian region, and at Niue Island, during local
night hours. Spread-F was observed in southern Australian sites
during local night hours, with significant spread-F observed
at Hobart. Sporadic E was also observed at Norfolk Island. MUFs
in the Australian region are forecast to become depressed by
10-15% over 08-Jul due to forecast geomagnetic activity, before
beginning to recover over 09-10 Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jul
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 129000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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