[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 21 January 26 issued 2330 UT on 21 Jan 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Jan 22 10:30:50 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JANUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0135UT possible lower West Pacific
M3.4 0712UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan: 188/141
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jan 23 Jan 24 Jan
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: Solar flare activity reached the R1 level on UT day
21-Jan, with an M1.1 flare from Active Region (AR) 4345 (S16W11,
beta-gamma) at 21/0135UT, and an M3.4 flare from AR 4349 (S11E54,
beta) at 21/0712UT. These active regions are two of ten currently
visible on the solar disk, with the aforementioned AR 4345 being
the most magnetically complex. This region experienced a redistribution
of minor spots but appeared mostly stable over the past UT day.
Active regions 4350 (N20E34, beta-gamma-delta) and 4351 (S04E26,
beta) both grew over the past 24 hours, with all other regions
stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is expected to remain
at the R1-R2 level over 22-24 Jan, given the flare history of
several active regions currently on the solar surface. Solar
radiation storm conditions reached the S1 level over 21-Jan,
with the solar proton flux slowly declining across the UT day.
Proton flux began the UT day at 42 pfu, and declined below the
S1 threshold of 10 pfu at 21/1830UT. The proton flux has continued
to decline, and is currently at 6.1 pfu. S0 conditions, with
a chance of S1, are forecast over 22-Jan. These conditions will
decline to S0 over 23-24 Jan, as the solar proton flux continues
to trend towards background levels. No Earth-directed Coronal
Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed over the last 24 hours. The
solar wind speed declined over 21-Jan, as the ongoing effects
of a CME that impacted Earth on 19-Jan continue to ease. The
wind speed began the UT day at 820-850 km/s, and declined to
speeds ranging between 570-600 km/s over the last three hours.
The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at
13 nT at the start of the UT day. The north-south component
(Bz) of the magnetic field ranged between -8 and +4 nT, with
prolonged periods of southward Bz observed from the start of
the UT day until 21/1140UT. Further declines in the solar wind
speed are expected over UT day 22-24 Jan, as the CME effects
continue to abate. These declining effects will be replaced by
coronal hole high speed wind streams, which are expected to be
geoeffective during this period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jan: G2
Estimated Indices 21 Jan : A K
Australian Region 33 54564422
Cocos Island 20 43453331
Darwin 29 44464423
Townsville 33 54563423
Learmonth 40 55564532
Alice Springs 33 54564422
Gingin 34 54464532
Canberra 33 54564323
Kennaook Cape Grim 43 55665422
Hobart 43 55665333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jan :
Macquarie Island 78 56875532
Casey 34 56454333
Mawson 97 87675464
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jan :
Darwin 13 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice Springs 14 (Quiet)
Gingin 65 (Active)
Canberra 59 (Unsettled)
Hobart 143 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 45
Planetary 74
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 91
Planetary 143 6688 7778
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jan 22 G0, chance of G1
23 Jan 15 G0
24 Jan 12 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 21 January
and is current for 22 Jan only. G2 geomagnetic conditions were
observed across the Australian region on UT day 21-Jan, due to
the ongoing effects of a coronal mass ejection impact with Earth
on 19-Jan. G4 intervals were recorded in the Antarctic region,
and G3 geomagnetic conditions were reported at the planetary
level. G0 conditions, with a chance of G1, are expected on 22-Jan
as these conditions ease. G0 conditions are forecast over 23–24
Jan as geomagnetic activity continues to subside.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Fair-poor Poor-fair Poor
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2240UT 18/01, Ended at 1640UT 21/01
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
23 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were Poor-Fair across
UT day 21-Jan, with some improvements seen over the last 24 hours
compared with the previous UT day. Widespread Maximum Usable
Frequency (MUF) depressions were observed due to a geomagnetic storm
that began on 19-Jan. Ionospheric conditions improved over the
UT day, with only mild degradations observed late in the UT day.
European MUFs were 20-30% depressed over much of the UT day,
but improved towards the end of the UT day. Ionospheric conditions
are expected to continue improving over 22-24 Jan, with Fair-normal
conditions forecast for 22-Jan, and trending towards Normal conditions
over 23-24 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jan 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 89
Feb 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jan 50 10 to 15% below predicted monthly values
23 Jan 70 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 14 was issued on
21 January and is current for 21-23 Jan. Ionospheric conditions
in the Australian region recovered over UT day 21-Jan, as geomagnetic
conditions eased. Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) were depressed
by 20-25% in the Australian region during this time, with depressions
of up to 40% seen in the Cocos Islands. Strong spread F was observed
in Hobart and Perth, and strong sporadic E was observed in Norfolk
Island. Further ionospheric recoveries are expected over 22-24
Jan, with MUFs likely to trend toward predicted monthly values
over this period. Shortwave fadeouts are possible, and sporadic
E may be observed during local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.4E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jan
Speed: 902 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 117000 K Bz: -8 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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