[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 20 January 26 issued 2330 UT on 20 Jan 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Jan 21 10:30:50 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JANUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan: 178/131
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 175/129
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 20-Jan was at the R0
level, with several low level C-class flares observed. There
are currently ten numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk. AR4342 (N18W00, beta-gamma) is the most magnetically complex
region on the disk and has exhibited spot development over the
UT day. AR4345 (S16E03, beta) has shown spot growth over the
24-hour period. The other notable region, AR4341 (S11W04, beta),
has shown mild decay in its leader spots. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is expected
to be at R1-R2 levels over 21-23 Jan. S2 solar proton conditions
were observed on UT day 20-Jan. S1 solar proton conditions are
expected on 21-Jan, declining to S0, with a chance of S1 over
21-22 Jan. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have
been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 20-Jan decreased,
ranging from 785 to 1050 km/s and is currently near 825 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 62 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -26
to +60 nT. A sustained period of southward IMF conditions began
at 20/0530UT and is ongoing. The solar wind speed is expected
to decline over 21-23 Jan due to waning CME effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: G4
Estimated Indices 20 Jan : A K
Australian Region 115 74687766
Cocos Island 59 63566655
Darwin 109 84686656
Townsville 112 74696655
Learmonth 148 84687867
Alice Springs 92 74686655
Gingin 135 74688767
Canberra 85 64686655
Kennaook Cape Grim 120 64688766
Hobart 154 7479--76
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jan :
Macquarie Island 151 54797786
Casey 93 87675454
Mawson 103 68776555
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jan :
Darwin 94 (Minor storm)
Townsville 91 (Minor storm)
Learmonth 116 (Major storm)
Alice Springs 96 (Minor storm)
Gingin 194 (Severe storm)
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 68
Planetary 125
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 64
Planetary 73 3211 1389
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jan 45 G2-G3
22 Jan 22 G1, chance of G2
23 Jan 15 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 19 January
and is current for 19-21 Jan. G4 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in both the planetary and Australian regions on UT day
20-Jan. Mostly G4 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the
Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G5 observed at Macquarie
Island. G2-G3 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 21-Jan due
to ongoing CME effects. G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 22-Jan, with a chance of G2. Conditions are then expected
to further decline to G0 on 23-Jan, with a chance of G1.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Poor Poor Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 18 01 2026 2240UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Fair Fair-poor Poor
22 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
23 Jan Normal Normal Fair-poor
COMMENT: Global Ionospheric conditions were poor on UT day 20-Jan,
with widespread MUF depressions due to ongoing geomagnetic activity.
Global ionospheric conditions are forecast to be fair to poor
on 21-Jan and normal to fair over 22-23 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jan -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 55% during local night.
Depressed by 50% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 60% during local day.
Depressed by 55% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 55% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 89
Feb 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jan 20 25 to 50% below predicted monthly values
22 Jan 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
23 Jan 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 12 was issued on
19 January and is current for 19-21 Jan. ASWFC HF Communications
Warning 13 was issued on 20 January and is current for 20-21
Jan. Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region
were depressed by 30-60% on UT day 20-Jan, with the strongest
depressions observed in northern Australia. Strong spread-F was
observed in the Southern Australian region. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be depressed by 25-50% on 21-Jan due to
ongoing geomagnetic activity. MUFs are expected to be 15-20%
depressed on 22-Jan, before recovering to near predicted monthly
values on 23-Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+09
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.8E+08
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: 303 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 65000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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