[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 19 January 26 issued 2333 UT on 19 Jan 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Jan 20 10:33:30 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JANUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 1119UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan: 173/127
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 19-Jan was at the R1
level due to an M1.1 flare at 19/1119UT produced by AR4345 (S16E16,
beta). Several C-class flares were also observed over the UT
day. There are currently ten numbered sunspot regions visible
on the solar disk. AR4341 (S11E09, beta-gamma) is the largest
and most magnetically complex region on the disk and has shown
some decay in its leader spots. AR4342 (S18E13, beta) has exhibited
spot development over the UT day. AR4345 has shown spot growth.
AR4348 (S19W12, beta) has shown mild spot growth. Newly numbered
AR4349 (S12E80, alpha) recently rotated over the eastern limb
and appears stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar flare activity is expected to be at R1-R2
levels over 20-22 Jan. S4 solar proton conditions were observed
on UT day 19-Jan, with the > 10 MeV flux peaking near 37000 pfu
at 19/1915UT. The > 50 MeV proton flux peaked at 46.3 pfu at
19/1910UT. The proton flux has been declining since this time
and is now at the S2 level. S2 solar proton conditions are expected
on UT day 20-Jan, with a chance of S3, then declining to S1 over
21-22 Jan. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have
been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 19-Jan strongly
increased, ranging from 415 to 1135 km/s and is currently near
1040 km/s. The increase in the solar wind speed was due to the
arrival of a halo CME first observed on 18-Jan, with a strong
solar wind shock observed at 19/1856UT. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 91 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was -58 to +81 nT. Sustained periods
of strong southward IMF conditions have been observed since the
CME arrival, particularly between 19/2003-2106UT. The solar wind
speed is expected to decline over 20-22 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: G4
Estimated Indices 19 Jan : A K
Australian Region 84 21121388
Cocos Island 71 21011379
Darwin 71 21111379
Townsville 104 21021399
Learmonth 73 31121379
Alice Springs 72 21121379
Gingin 53 31121378
Canberra 51 21121278
Kennaook Cape Grim 84 21121389
Hobart 103 21121299
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jan :
Macquarie Island 107 22122499
Casey 97 45432398
Mawson 63 53233487
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jan :
Darwin 122 (Severe storm)
Townsville 125 (Severe storm)
Learmonth 108 (Major storm)
Alice Springs 109 (Major storm)
Gingin 149 (Severe storm)
Canberra 125 (Severe storm)
Hobart 69 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 40
Planetary 61
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15 3432 2343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jan 100 G4, chance of G5
21 Jan 45 G2-G3
22 Jan 22 G1, chance of G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 19 January
and is current for 19-20 Jan. G4 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 19-Jan. G4 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the planetary region. G5 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic
activity was due to the arrival of a CME first observed on 18-Jan.
G4 geomagnetic conditions are expected to continue into 20-Jan,
with a chance of G5 due to ongoing CME effects. G2-G3 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 21-Jan as CME effects decline. G1
geomagnetic conditions are expected on 22-Jan, with a chance of G2.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 18 01 2026 2240UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Poor Poor Poor(PCA)
21 Jan Fair Fair-poor Poor
22 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Global Ionospheric conditions were mostly normal to
fair on UT day 19-Jan, with widespread MUF depressions observed
across the southern hemisphere at the end of the UT day following
the onset of geomagnetic activity. Global ionospheric conditions
are forecast to be poor on 20-Jan and fair to poor on 21-Jan
due to ongoing geomagnetic activity. Normal to fair conditions
are expected on 22-Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jan 95
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 89
Feb 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jan 45 25 to 50% below predicted monthly values
21 Jan 45 25 to 35% below predicted monthly values
22 Jan 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 11 was issued
on 19 January and is current for 19-21 Jan. ASWFC SWF HF Communications
Warning 12 was issued on 19 January and is current for 19-21
Jan. Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 19-Jan were
mostly near predicted monthly values, tending toward 25% depressions
after local dawn following the onset of geomagnetic activity.
Strong spread-F was observed in the Southern Australian region.
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be depressed by
25-50% on 20-Jan and 25-35% depressed on 21-Jan due to ongoing
geomagnetic activity. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% depressed on 22-Jan. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jan
Speed: 562 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 141000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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