[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 18 January 26 issued 2334 UT on 18 Jan 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Jan 19 10:34:03 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JANUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JANUARY - 21 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** RED **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jan: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 17/2351UT possible lower West Pacific
X1.9 1809UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jan: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan
Activity R2, chance of R3 R2, chance of R3 R2, chance of R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 165/119 170/124
COMMENT: Solar flare activity reached the R3 level on 18-Jan,
with an X1.9 flare originating from Active Region (AR) 4341 (S11E21,
beta-gamma), peaking at 18/1809UT. This region is the largest
of eight numbered active regions on the solar disk, and has remained
mostly stable over the past 24 hours. Region 4342 (N18E25, beta-gamma)
has shown some trailing spot growth over the same period. AR
4348 (S19W01) appeared during the last UT day, and has a beta
magnetic classification. A new region has appeared at S03E53
and appears magnetically simple. All other regions were stable
or in decay over the previous 24 hours. Solar flare activity
is forecast to be at the R2 level, with a chance of R3 over 19-21
Jan due to the flare activity of AR4341. Solar radiation storm
conditions reached the S1 level late on UT day 18-Jan. Proton
flux became elevated from background levels after 18/1530UT,
coincident with the X1.9 flare. Solar proton flux is currently
at 17.6 pfu, with further increases in proton flux likely. Solar
radiation storm conditions are forecast to be at the S1 level,
with a chance of S2 over the period 19-21 Jan. A Coronal Mass
Ejection (CME) has been observed on 18-Jan following the X1.9
flare, first observed by Stereo Cor2 at 18/1823UT, and is likely
Earth directed, with an impact at Earth forecast for 20-Jan at
0600UT +/- 10 hours. Further analysis will take place as additional
imagery becomes available. The solar wind speed declined across
UT day 18-Jan, ranging from 680-720 km/s early in the UT day,
decreasing to 480-520 km/s by the end of the period. This elevation
is due to ongoing high-speed wind stream effects from a coronal
hole. The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked
at 10 nT during 18-Jan, with the north-south component (Bz) ranging
between -7 and +7 nT, with an extended southward period between
18/1840-1930UT. The solar wind speed is forecast to remain at
elevated levels over UT day 19-Jan as the Earth moves through
the coronal hole high-speed wind stream. The solar wind speed
is forecast to become elevated on 20-21 Jan due to a CME impact
forecast for this period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 18 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 23222332
Cocos Island 8 23222321
Darwin 11 23222333
Townsville 11 23222333
Learmonth 11 33222332
Alice Springs 9 22222332
Gingin 11 33222332
Canberra 9 23221332
Kennaook Cape Grim 9 23221332
Hobart 10 23222332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jan :
Macquarie Island 17 24344332
Casey 29 46433344
Mawson 39 35434473
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jan :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 50 (Unsettled)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 27 5443 3444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jan 20 G0-G1
20 Jan 65 G3, chance of G4
21 Jan 55 G3, chance of G4
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 17 January
and is current for 17-19 Jan. Geomagnetic activity was at the
G0 level in the Australian region on UT day 18-Jan, with G0 geomagnetic
conditions reported at the planetary level. G1-G2 periods were
observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic activity is forecast
at the G0-G1 level for 19-Jan due to ongoing effects of a coronal
hole high-speed wind stream. G3, with a chance of G4 geomagnetic
activity, is forecast for 20-21 Jan due to a possible coronal
mass ejection impact with Earth.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
20 Jan Fair Fair Fair-poor
21 Jan Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Global Ionospheric conditions were mostly Fair-Normal
on UT day 18-Jan, with some MUF depressions observed across the
southern hemisphere, particularly in the South African and Antarctic
regions. Some small degradations were also observed in the Australian
region during local dawn. MUFs in the European region were near
monthly predicted values. Global ionospheric conditions are forecast
to remain at Fair-Normal levels on 19-Jan due to ongoing geomagnetic
activity. Conditions will deteriorate on 20-21 Jan due to the
probable arrival of a coronal mass ejection at Earth. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jan 96
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 89
Feb 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jan 70 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
20 Jan 45 Depressed 25 to 35%/near predicted monthly values
21 Jan 45 Depressed 25 to 35%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on
18 January and is current for 18-20 Jan. Maximum Usable Frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 17-Jan were mostly near predicted monthly values,
with some enhancements observed in Northern Australia, the Cocos
Islands, and Niue Island regions during local daytime hours.
Some depressions up to 25% were observed in the Australian region
after local dawn. Strong spread-F and sporadic-E were observed
in the Southern Australian region. MUFs in the Australian region
are expected to be depressed by 10-15% on 19-Jan due to coronal
hole high-speed wind stream effects. Depressions of 25-35% are
likely on 20-21 Jan due to a potential CME impact forecast for
this day. Shortwave fadeouts are probable, and sporadic-E may
be observed during local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jan
Speed: 698 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 235000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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