[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 17 January 26 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jan 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Jan 18 10:30:50 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JANUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.1 1029UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jan: 159/113
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan
Activity R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 165/119
COMMENT: Solar flare activity reached the R1 level on UT day
17-Jan, with an M2.1 flare peaking at 17/1029UT from Active Region
(AR) 4341 (S11E32, beta-gamma-delta). This region is the largest
and most magnetically complex of seven regions on the visible
disk, and has remained mostly stable over the last 24 hours.
It has also produced numerous C-class flares during this period.
Active regions 4342 (N18E39, beta-gamma) and 4343 (S10W18, beta-gamma)
have also produced several low-level C-class flares over the
past UT day and have remained stable. AR 4344 (N20E28, beta)
has shown some growth over the last UT day, while all other regions
have remained stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is forecast
to remain at the R1 level, with a chance of R2 activity, based
on the flare activity of active regions 4341, 4342, and 4343.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed over the past
24 hours, with the proton flux at background levels. S0 conditions
are expected to persist over the period 18-20 Jan. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections were observed in the past 24 hours in
the available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed was elevated
across 17-Jan, ranging between 680-750 km/s for most of the UT
day. A discrete jump was observed at 17/0215UT, likely coinciding
with a connection to a coronal hole high-speed wind stream. A
decrease in the interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF,
Bt) was also observed at this time, dropping from a peak value
of 12 nT down to 8 nT. The north-south component (Bz) of the
magnetic field ranged between -9 and +10 nT, but has ranged between
-6 and +7 nT since the high-speed wind stream connection. Connection
to the coronal hole high-speed wind stream was also observed
in ACE EPAM data, with an ion enhancement occurring at 17/0535UT.
The solar wind stream is forecast to remain at very strong levels
over 18-20 Jan due to these coronal hole high-speed wind stream
effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 17 Jan : A K
Australian Region 15 33423333
Cocos Island 10 32322322
Darwin 17 33423334
Townsville 16 33433333
Learmonth 17 43433332
Alice Springs 14 33423323
Gingin 18 43433333
Canberra 14 33323333
Kennaook Cape Grim 16 33433333
Hobart 15 33423333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jan :
Macquarie Island 23 44444432
Casey 51 57743333
Mawson 38 45644454
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jan :
Darwin 16 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 15 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 84 (Minor storm)
Canberra 106 (Major storm)
Hobart 129 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 26 3433 4545
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jan 24 G1, chance of G2
19 Jan 20 G1
20 Jan 17 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 17 January
and is current for 17-19 Jan. Geomagnetic activity was at the
G0 level in the Australian region on UT day 17-Jan, with periods
of G1-G3 observed in the Antarctic region, and a weak (14 nT)
impulse was observed at 0610UT. G1 activity was reported at the
planetary level due to the influence of a coronal hole high speed
wind stream. G1 geomagnetic conditions, with a chance of G2,
are forecast for 18-Jan due to these wind stream effects. This
will decline to G1 on 19-Jan, and decrease to G0 with a chance
of G1 on 20-Jan as this coronal hole rotates across the solar
disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
19 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
20 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were Normal-Fair on 17-Jan,
with some depressions seen in the South African region, as well
as degradations in the polar regions. MUFs were near predicted
values in the European region. Ionospheric conditions are expected
to become Fair-Normal on 18-Jan due to ongoing geomagnetic activity,
trending towards Normal-Fair on 19-20 Jan as geomagnetic conditions
ease. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jan 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 89
Feb 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jan 75 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
19 Jan 70 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
20 Jan 87 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 17-Jan were
mostly near predicted monthly values, with some enhancements
seen in Niue Island. Strong spread-F and sporadic-E were observed
in the Southern Australian region. MUFs were depressed in the
Antarctic region by up to 20%. MUFs in the Australian region
are expected to be depressed by 10-15% on 18-19 Jan due to coronal
hole high-speed wind streams effects. These will likely trend
towards predicted values on 20-Jan as the wind stream effects
subside. Shortwave fadeouts are possible, and sporadic-E may
be observed during local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jan
Speed: 673 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 347000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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