[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 January 26 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jan 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Jan 17 10:30:53 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JANUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan
Activity R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 147/101
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R0 level on UT day 16-Jan,
with no M-class or higher flares observed. There are currently
nine numbered sunspot regions on the visible solar disk. Active
Region (AR) 4341 (S11E44,beta-gamma-delta) is the largest and
most magnetically complex region, and has exhibited minor growth
over the past UT day. AR 4343 (S10W07, beta-gamma) has also shown
growth over the same period. New region 4347 has rotated onto
the visible disk at N10E68, and appears to be magnetically simple.
All other regions are either stable or in decay. Solar flare
activity is forecast to remain at the R1 level, with a chance
of R2 activity over 17-19 Jan, given the large magnetically complex
regions on the disk. S0 solar proton conditions persisted throughout
UT day 16-Jan, with proton flux consistent with background levels.
S0 solar proton conditions are forecast over 17-19 Jan. No Earth
directed coronal mass ejections were observed over the past UT
day in available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind has been
very strong over 16-Jan, with a discrete elevation observed after
16/0220UT, rising from 540-570 km/s to 650-700 km/s. This was
accompanied by increases in solar wind density and temperature,
likely due to the arrival of a solar transient, with the solar
wind remaining between 670-710 km/s over the last six hours.
The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at
14 nT, coincident with the rise in solar wind speed. The north-south
component (Bz) of the magnetic field ranged between -12 and +11
nT, with a prolonged period of southward Bz between 16/1315UT
and 16/1445UT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated
over 17-Jan due to the ongoing effects of this solar transient,
and is forecast to remain elevated over 18-19 Jan as the Earth
connects with a high-speed coronal hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Jan : A K
Australian Region 15 33323433
Cocos Island 11 23223332
Darwin 17 33323434
Townsville 16 33333433
Learmonth 19 33323543
Alice Springs 15 33323433
Gingin 19 33323543
Canberra 16 33333433
Kennaook Cape Grim 18 34333433
Hobart 19 34333434
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jan :
Macquarie Island 43 24445754
Casey 41 57543433
Mawson 64 54545854
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jan :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 11 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 81 (Minor storm)
Canberra 78 (Active)
Hobart 119 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 24
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12 3232 1332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jan 15 G0-G1
18 Jan 24 G1, chance of G2
19 Jan 24 G1
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
at the G0 level for UT day 16-Jan, with isolated G1 intervals
recorded at Learmonth and Gingin. Geomagnetic conditions reached
the G1 level at the planetary level, with periods of G3-G4 observed
in the Antarctic region. G0-G1 conditions are forecast for 17-Jan,
as the effects from a possible solar transient continue. Geomagnetic
conditions are likely to increase on 18-Jan to G1, with a chance
of G2, as the Earth enters a coronal hole high-speed wind stream.
G1 conditions are forecast for 19-Jan as the high-speed wind
stream effects persist.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
18 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
19 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions are mostly Normal, with
some degradations observed in the Asian region during local daytime
hours, and during local nighttime hours in the African region.
MUFs were near predicted values in the European region. Ionospheric
conditions were Fair across the Antarctic region. Conditions
are expected to be Normal-Fair during 17-Jan, becoming Fair-Normal
during 18-19 Jan due to forecast geomagnetic activity. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jan 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 89
Feb 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jan 85 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jan 75 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
19 Jan 70 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 9 was issued on
15 January and is current for 15-17 Jan. Maximum Usable Frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted monthly values
during UT day 16-Jan. Some enhancements were observed in the
Cocos Islands, while depressions were observed in the Antarctic
region. Mild sporadic E was observed in the southern Australian
region, and some mild spread F was reported during local night
hours in Hobart. MUFs are expected to remain near predicted monthly
values over 17-Jan, but are forecast to become depressed by 10-15%
on 18-19 Jan due to geomagnetic activity associated with a coronal
hole high‑speed wind stream. Shortwave fadeouts and sporadic-E
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jan
Speed: 581 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 222000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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