[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 January 26 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jan 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Jan 16 10:30:52 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JANUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jan: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 143/97 140/94
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 15-Jan was at the R0
level. There are currently five numbered sunspot regions visible
on the solar disk. AR4341 (S09E67, beta-gamma-delta) is largest
and the most magnetically complex region on the disk but appears
stable. AR4343 (S10E71, beta-gamma) and AR4342 (N18E71, beta)
have shown growth in their trailing spots over UT day. All other
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is
expected to be at the R1 level over 16-18 Jan, with a chance
of R2. S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 15-Jan.
S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 16-18 Jan. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed. Two north directed
CMEs were observed at 15/0224UT and 15/0712UT, both of which
are considered farside events and not geoeffective. The solar
wind speed on UT day 15-Jan was mostly stable, ranging from 471-675
km/s and is currently 564 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT. An equatorial coronal
hole his expected to become geoeffective on 18th Jan. The solar
wind is expected to decline over 16-17 Jan and increase on 18-Jan
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 23322322
Cocos Island 7 22211232
Darwin 10 23322322
Townsville 10 23322322
Learmonth 12 33322233
Alice Springs 9 23322321
Gingin 11 32222333
Canberra 8 23322221
Kennaook Cape Grim 9 23322321
Hobart 8 23322221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jan :
Macquarie Island 12 22333332
Casey 35 45732333
Mawson 25 43443453
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jan :
Darwin 13 (Quiet)
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 54 (Unsettled)
Hobart 63 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 2211 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jan 11 G0
17 Jan 12 G0
18 Jan 21 G1, chance G2
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in Australia.
An isolated period of G3 was observed in Antarctic regions on
UT day 15-Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 16-17
Jan. G1 geomagnetic conditions with a chance of G2 are expected
on 18-Jan due to an equatorial coronal hole becoming geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly normal on
UT day 15-Jan, with MUFs in the European region depressed 20%
after local dawn. Ionospheric conditions are expected to be normal
over 16-17 Jan and becoming normal to fair on 18-Jan. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jan 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 89
Feb 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jan 85 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jan 85 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jan 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 9 was issued on
15 January and is current for 15-17 Jan. Maximum usable Frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were mostly near predicted monthly
values on UT day 15-Jan. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values over 16-18 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jan
Speed: 507 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 182000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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