[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 January 26 issued 2336 UT on 14 Jan 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Thu Jan 15 10:36:29 AEDT 2026

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JANUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jan:  R1

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.6    2033UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan: 127/80

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jan             16 Jan             17 Jan
Activity     R1, chance R2      R1, chance R2      R1, chance R2
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             132/86             128/81

COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 14-Jan was at the R1 
level due to an M1.6 flare at 14/2033UT produced by AR4341 (S09E81, 
beta-gamma-delta). There are currently four numbered sunspot 
regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered region. 
AR4341 is the most magnetically complex region on the disk and 
has shown growth in its leader spots. AR4340 (N15E08, beta-gamma) 
has exhibited mild spot growth over the UT day. AR4336 (S10W50, 
beta) has shown mild spot growth in its trailer spots. Newly 
numbered AR4342 (N19E75, beta) recently rotated over the eastern 
limb and appears stable. An unnumbered region recently appeared 
near S05E22 (beta-gamma) and has exhibited spot growth. Solar 
flare activity is expected to be at the R1 level over 15-17 Jan, 
with a chance of R2. S0 solar proton conditions were observed 
on UT day 14-Jan, with the 10 MeV proton flux showing a slight 
elevation above background levels from 14/2230UT, but still well 
within the S0 range. S0 solar proton conditions are expected 
over 15-17 Jan. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) 
have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 14-Jan was 
mostly stable, ranging from 470 to 570 km/s and is currently 
near 565 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength 
(IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range 
was -6 to +6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline 
over 15-17 Jan.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jan: G0

Estimated Indices 14 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   01022123
      Cocos Island         4   11002123
      Darwin               9   01012225
      Townsville           8   11122224
      Learmonth            7   11022224
      Alice Springs        5   01012223
      Gingin               6   01023123
      Canberra             4   01022113
      Kennaook Cape Grim   6   01123113
      Hobart               7   11123123    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     4   01013112
      Casey               18   34433333
      Mawson              15   44232233

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   4322 1132     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jan     8    G0
16 Jan     6    G0
17 Jan     6    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
and Antarctic regions on UT day 14-Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions 
are expected over 15-17 Jan.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly normal on 
UT day 14-Jan, with MUFs in the European region depressed 20% 
after local dawn. Ionospheric conditions are expected to be normal 
to fair over 15-17 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
14 Jan    89

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      110
Jan      89
Feb      88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jan    80    Near predicted monthly values
16 Jan    80    Near predicted monthly values
17 Jan    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region were mostly near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced 
on UT day 14-Jan. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local 
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
over 15-17 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jan
Speed: 533 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:   305000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au