[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 January 26 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jan 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Jan 14 10:30:49 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JANUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JANUARY - 16 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jan: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan
Activity R0, chance of R1 R1 R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 122/75 125/78
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R0 level on UT day 13-Jan,
with no significant flare events in the last 24 hours. There
are currently three numbered sunspot regions on the solar surface,
with Active Region (AR) 4336 (S10W38, beta) being the largest.
This region has shown some decay in the trailer spots over the
last UT day. Region 4340 (N15E19, beta) has shown some redistribution
in minor spots, and AR 4334 (S17W69, alpha) has decayed over
the same period. A new unnumbered active region has started to
rotate onto the visible disk at (S08E90), with its magnetic classification
heavily affected by limb foreshortening. This active region is
coincident with the return of ex-active region 4321. Solar flare
activity is forecast at R0, with a chance of reaching the R1
level for 14-Jan. This will rise to R1 solar flare activity on
15-16 Jan as this new active region continues rotating onto the
front side of the solar disk. Solar radiation storm conditions
were at the S0 level during UT day 13-Jan, and S0 conditions
are forecast to continue over the period 14-16 Jan. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections were observed over the past UT day. The
solar wind speed was elevated over the last 24 hours, gradually
decreasing from 550-600 km/s early in the UT day to a current
range of 470-520 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) peaked at 8 nT during 13-Jan, with the North-South
component (Bz) ranging between -7 and +6 nT during this time.
The solar wind speed is expected to further decrease over 14-16
Jan, as a coronal hole high-speed wind stream rotates beyond
a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22231011
Cocos Island 3 22120011
Darwin 4 22121012
Townsville 4 21121022
Learmonth 8 23231122
Alice Springs 6 22231012
Gingin 8 33231121
Canberra 5 22231011
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 22232111
Hobart 6 22232111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jan :
Macquarie Island 6 23231011
Casey 28 46542233
Mawson 20 34342253
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18 3443 1234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jan 14 G0
15 Jan 8 G0
16 Jan 6 G0
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at the G0 level across the
Australian region, with periods of G1-G2 conditions reported
in Antarctica. G0 geomagnetic activity was also reported at the
planetary level. G0 conditions are forecast for 14-16 Jan, as
the effects of a coronal hole high-speed wind stream start to
subside.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Fair-poor Fair-poor Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
15 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were Poor-Fair on UT day
13-Jan, with large depressions observed across the equatorial
Australia and Asia regions due to ongoing geomagnetic activity.
Depressions were also observed in the North American and European
regions during local daytime hours. MUFs in the European region
were depressed 25% after local dawn. Ionospheric conditions are
expected to improve over 14-Jan as this geomagnetic activity
eases, with Fair-Normal conditions forecast. Conditions will
continue to improve thereafter, with Normal-Fair and Normal conditions
forecast for 15-16 Jan respectively.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jan 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 89
Feb 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jan 75 Depressed 10-15%/near predicted monthly values
15 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jan 89 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on
11 January and is current for 12-14 Jan. ASWFC HF Communications
Warning 8 was issued on 13 January and is current for 13-14 Jan.
Maximum usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region were
depressed during 13-Jan, with 20-30% depressions observed in
the Northern Australian region as well as the Cocos Islands.
MUFs in the Southern Australian region and the Antarctic were
near predicted monthly values, but experienced strong sporadic-E
and mild spread-F conditions. MUFs are expected to recover over
14-Jan, with depressions of 10-15% forecast due to the ongoing
coronal hole high-speed wind stream effects. MUFs are forecast
to continue to recover to near predicted monthly values over
15-16 Jan. Sporadic-E is possible during local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jan
Speed: 539 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 113000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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