[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 January 26 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jan 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Jan 13 10:30:51 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JANUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.3 11/2314UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jan: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar flare activity reached the R1 level on UT day
12-Jan, due to a long duration M3.3 flare from the eastern limb
which peaked at 11/2314UT. There are currently three active regions
on the solar disk, with Active Region (AR) 4336 (S10W25, beta)
remaining the largest and most magnetically complex. This region
has shown further decay over the last 24 hours. Nearby AR 4334
(S14W56, alpha) has also shown decay over this period. AR 4340
(N15E32, beta) has shown further growth over the last UT day.
Solar flare activity is forecast to be at R0-R1 levels for 13-14
Jan, with a possible increase to R1 on 15-Jan as a potentially
flare-active region on the eastern limb rotates onto the Earth-facing
side of the disk. Solar proton conditions were at the S0 level,
with the 10 MeV proton flux showing a slight elevation above
background after 12/1700UT, but still well within the S0 range.
S0 conditions are expected to continue over 13-15 Jan. Two Coronal
Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed over the past UT day, but
neither was considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed remained
elevated across the UT day 12-Jan, rising slightly throughout
the day from 500-530 km/s to a peak of approximately 650 km/s.
The solar wind speed is currently ranging between 560-590 km/s.
The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at
9 nT during 12-Jan, with the North-South component (Bz) ranging
between -7 and +7 nT, with an extended period of southward Bz
observed between 12/2045-2145UT. The solar wind is expected to
remain elevated, with a slow decline over 13-Jan, as the effects
of a recent CME impact subside. This will be replaced with a
coronal hole high-speed wind stream by 14-Jan, and will persist
over 15-Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jan: G1
Estimated Indices 12 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 23221223
Cocos Island 6 12211223
Darwin 8 23221223
Townsville 8 23221232
Learmonth 10 23221333
Alice Springs 7 23221222
Gingin 10 22321333
Canberra 8 23231122
Kennaook Cape Grim 9 23331122
Hobart 10 23332123
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jan :
Macquarie Island 13 24331233
Casey 30 45553334
Mawson 45 56533465
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 31 5333 5554
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jan 18 G0, chance of G1
14 Jan 14 G0, chance of G1
15 Jan 10 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed across the Australian
region on UT day 12-Jan. Periods of G1-G2 were reported in the
Antarctic region, and G0 was observed at the planetary scale.
G0 geomagnetic conditions, with a chance of G1 are forecast over 13-14 Jan
due to the waning influence of a previous CME impact, along with
the influence of an equatorial coronal hole rotating into a geoeffective
position. These conditions will likely subside to G0 by 15-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Poor Poor Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Fair-poor Fair-poor Fair-poor
14 Jan Fair Fair Fair
15 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions on UT day 12-Jan were
Poor, with depressions reported across multiple regions, particularly
over the Australian and African regions. Depressions were also
observed in the South American region, as well as Europe. MUFs
in Europe became depressed by 15% during local night, and by
30% after local dawn. Ionospheric conditions are expected to
be Fair-Poor on 13-Jan, due to ongoing geomagnetic activity.
Conditions are forecast to improve over 14-15 Jan, as the geomagnetic
activity wanes. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jan 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 50% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 89
Feb 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jan 50 Depressed 20-30%/near predicted monthly values
14 Jan 75 Depressed 10-15%/near predicted monthly values
15 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on
11 January and is current for 12-14 Jan. Maximum usable Frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were depressed by 20-35% across
the Australian and Antarctic regions, with depressions up to
50% observed in the Cocos Island region. Strong sporadic-E, as
well as spread-F were observed in the Southern Australian Region
during local night hours. MUFs are forecast to be 20-30% below
predicted monthly values over 13-Jan due to ongoing geomagnetic
activity, before improving to 10-15% depressed on 14-Jan and
trending toward predicted monthly values by 15-Jan. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible, and sporadic-E may be observed during
local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jan
Speed: 530 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 134000 K Bz: -6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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