[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 January 26 issued 2330 UT on 11 Jan 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Jan 12 10:30:45 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JANUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JANUARY - 14 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** RED **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.3 2314UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jan: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 112/63
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 11-Jan was at the R1
level due to an M3.3 flare at 11/2314UT. This flare was produced
by an active region beyond the eastern limb near latitude S13.
There are currently three numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR4336 (S10W09, beta-gamma) remains the largest
and most magnetically complex region on the disk and has shown
decay in its trailer spots. Newly numbered AR4340 (N15E47, beta)
recently appeared on the disk and has shown spot growth. All
other sunspot regions are in decay. Solar flare activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 12-14 Jan. S0 solar proton conditions
were observed on UT day 11-Jan. S0 solar proton conditions are
expected over 12-14 Jan. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 11-Jan
was mostly stable, ranging from 505 to 560 km/s and is currently
near 545 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 17 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was -11 to +12 nT. Sustained southward IMF conditions were observed
for the majority of the UT day, particularly between 1000-1700UT.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated on 12-Jan
due to ongoing CME effects. The solar wind may increase on 13-Jan
due to Earth's entry into a coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jan: G1
Estimated Indices 11 Jan : A K
Australian Region 19 32235442
Cocos Island 12 32213342
Darwin 20 32235443
Townsville 19 32235442
Learmonth 26 33235553
Alice Springs 20 32225452
Gingin 27 32226552
Canberra 20 32335442
Kennaook Cape Grim 21 32335443
Hobart 22 32335542
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jan :
Macquarie Island 51 32456763
Casey 33 44654343
Mawson 54 53434774
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 35
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 32 2343 4366
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jan 22 G0-G1
13 Jan 14 G0, chance of G1
14 Jan 14 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 11-Jan, with an isolated period of G2 observed
at Gingin. G1 planetary geomagnetic conditions were observed.
G3 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region.
G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 12-Jan due to ongoing
CME effects. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 13-14
Jan, with a chance of G1 due to coronal hole high speed wind
stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Poor Poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Fair-poor Fair-poor Poor
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were poor on UT day 12-Jan,
with widespread depressions observed throughout the day following
the onset of geomagnetic activity. Ionospheric conditions are
expected to be fair to poor on 12-Jan due to ongoing geomagnetic
activity and normal to fair over 13-14 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jan 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 89
Feb 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jan 30 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
13 Jan 65 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
14 Jan 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 11 January
and is current for 11-12 Jan. ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning
7 was issued on 11 January and is current for 12-14 Jan. Maximum
usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region were depressed
by 35-40% on UT day 11-Jan. Spread F was observed at Hobart and
Perth during local night hours. MUFs are expected to continue
to be depressed by 20-30% on 12-Jan, and 15% depressed on 13-Jan.
MUFs are expected to recover to predicted monthly values on UT
day 14-Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jan
Speed: 479 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 98300 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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