[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 January 26 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jan 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Jan 11 10:30:50 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JANUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jan: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 118/70 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 10-Jan was at the R0
level, with several low level C-class flares observed. There
are currently four numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk. AR4336 (S10E05, beta-gamma-delta) remains the largest and
most magnetically complex region on the disk and has decayed
over the 24-hour period, particularly in its trailer spots. AR4337
(N26W72, beta) has shown mild spot growth. AR4334 (S17W27, beta)
has shown decay in its leader spots, and mild growth in its trailers.
All other sunspot regions are in decay. Solar flare activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 11-13 Jan. S0 solar proton
conditions were observed on UT day 10-Jan. S0 solar proton conditions
are expected over 11-13 Jan. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) have been observed. Plasma motion was observed near N08E05
at 10/0841UT and near S11W02 at 10/1941UT, however no significant
CMEs have been observed in association with these eruptions.
The solar wind speed on UT day 10-Jan increased, ranging from
450 to 610 km/s and is currently near 535 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 20 nT and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -19 to +9 nT. A
step increase was observed in the solar wind at 10/1936UT, indicative
of a CME arrival. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
elevated over 11-12 Jan due to ongoing CME effects. The solar
wind may increase on 13-Jan due to Earth's entry into a coronal
hole high speed wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jan: G1
Estimated Indices 10 Jan : A K
Australian Region 21 22324355
Cocos Island 19 12225254
Darwin 21 22324355
Townsville 21 22324355
Learmonth 28 22325365
Alice Springs 21 22324355
Gingin 33 23326365
Canberra 21 23424354
Kennaook Cape Grim 22 23434354
Hobart 22 23434354
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jan :
Macquarie Island 47 13456665
Casey 50 46645365
Mawson 59 35535676
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jan :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 46 (Unsettled)
Hobart 78 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 24
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12 4322 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jan 24 G1, chance of G2
12 Jan 14 G0, chance of G1
13 Jan 14 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 9 January
and is current for 10-11 Jan. G1 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 10-Jan, with isolated
periods of G2 observed at Gingin and Learmonth. G2 planetary
geomagnetic conditions were observed. Mostly G2 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period
of G3 observed at Mawson. Elevated geomagnetic activity is due
to a CME arrival. Bureau magnetometer data observed a 15 nT impulse
at 10/2016UT, confirming the CME arrival at Earth. G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 11-Jan, with a chance of G2 due to
ongoing CME effects. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
12-13 Jan, with a chance of G1 due to CME effects on 12-Jan,
and due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects on 13-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Fair Fair Fair-poor
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were normal to fair on
UT day 10-Jan, with depressions observed particularly at the
end of the UT day following the onset of geomagnetic activity.
Ionospheric conditions are expected to be fair on 11-Jan due
to ongoing geomagnetic activity and normal to fair over 12-13
Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jan 100
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 89
Feb 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jan 65 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
12 Jan 85 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jan 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were initially near predicted monthly values on UT day
10-Jan, tending towards depressions by the end of the UT day.
MUFs are 30% depressed after local dawn due to ongoing geomagnetic
activity. Spread F was observed at Hobart. MUFs are expected
to be continue to be depressed by 15-30% on 11-Jan. MUFs are
expected to recover to predicted monthly values over 12-13 Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jan
Speed: 488 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 202000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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