[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 January 26 issued 2330 UT on 09 Jan 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Sat Jan 10 10:30:51 AEDT 2026

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JANUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JANUARY - 12 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jan:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jan: 117/69

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jan             11 Jan             12 Jan
Activity     R0, chance R1      R0, chance R1      R0, chance R1
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   118/70             118/70             120/72

COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 09-Jan was at the R0 
level, with no significant flaring activity. There are currently 
three numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4336 
(S10E16, beta-delta) is the largest and most magnetically complex 
region on the disk and has shown mild decay in its leader spots. 
Newly numbered AR4339 (S10E07, beta) recently appeared on the 
solar disk and has shown mild growth. AR4334 (S17W16, beta) has 
shown mild decay. Solar flare activity is expected to be at the 
R0 level over 10-12 Jan, with a chance of R1. S0 solar proton 
conditions were observed on UT day 09-Jan. S0 solar proton conditions 
are expected over 10-12 Jan. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections 
(CMEs) have been observed on UT day 09-Jan. Further modelling 
of the CME first observed at 08/1648UT associated with a filament 
eruption and C5.6 flare indicates this CME is geoeffective, with 
an estimated arrival at Earth of 1600UT +/- 10 hrs on UT day 
10-Jan. The solar wind speed on UT day 09-Jan increased, ranging 
from 385 to 560 km/s and is currently near 485 km/s. The peak 
total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 16 
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -10 to +12 
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to increase on 10-Jan due 
to the arrival of a CME first observed on 08-Jan, then remain 
elevated over 11-12 Jan.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jan: G0

Estimated Indices 09 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   32322232
      Cocos Island         6   22222221
      Darwin              11   32322233
      Townsville          10   33322222
      Learmonth           10   32322232
      Alice Springs        9   32322222
      Gingin              12   33322332
      Canberra             9   22322232
      Kennaook Cape Grim  11   33322232
      Hobart              10   33322222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    11   32323322
      Casey               28   35643333
      Mawson              23   45443333

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Hobart              35   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             14   4342 1123     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jan    30    G1, chance of G2
11 Jan    22    G0-G1
12 Jan    14    G0, chance of G1

COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 9 January 
and is current for 10-11 Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the Australian region on UT day 09-Jan. Mostly G1 
geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, 
with an isolated period of G2 observed at Casey. G1 geomagnetic 
conditions are expected on 10-Jan, with a chance of G2 later 
in the UT day due to the combined effects of a coronal hole high 
speed wind stream and the arrival of a CME first observed on 
08-Jan. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 11-Jan, 
declining to G0, chance of G1 on 12-Jan.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jan      Normal         Normal         Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jan      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
11 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were normal-fair on UT 
day 09-Jan, with some depressions observed in the African region 
during local daytime. Ionospheric conditions are expected to 
be fair on 10-Jan and normal to fair over 11-12 Jan due to anticipated 
geomagnetic activity.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
09 Jan   103

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      110
Jan      89
Feb      88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jan    90    Near predicted monthly values
11 Jan    70    10 to 15% below predicted monthly values
12 Jan    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 
9 January and is current for 9-10 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted monthly values 
on UT day 09-Jan. MUFs are forecast to be near predicted monthly 
values on 10-Jan. MUFs are expected to become depressed relative 
to current values on 11-Jan, with depressions of 10-15% forecast 
due to geomagnetic activity. MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values on 12-Jan.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jan
Speed: 377 km/sec  Density:    6.6 p/cc  Temp:    40700 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au