[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 January 26 issued 2330 UT on 08 Jan 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Jan 9 10:30:51 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JANUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JANUARY - 11 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jan: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 132/86
COMMENT: Solar flare activity remained at the R0 level across
UT day 08-Jan, with no M-class flares observed. There are currently
three active regions on the visible solar surface, with Active
Region (AR) 4336 (S10E29, beta-gamma) being the largest and most
magnetically complex. This region has shown some growth in minor
spots over the last 24 hours. Active Region 4334 (S15W04, beta)
has shown some decay over this period, but has still produced
several C-class flares, which were coincident with coronal mass
ejections. The final region, AR 4337 (N26W48, beta), also exhibited
some decay during the past UT day. Solar flare activity is forecast
to reach R1, with a chance of R2 levels during 09-11 Jan, based
on recent activity from these three active regions. Solar radiation
storm conditions were at the S0 level during UT day 08-Jan, and
S0 conditions are forecast to continue over the period 09-11
Jan. Multiple Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed over
the past 24 hours. While modelling suggests these are not geoeffective,
analysis is still ongoing to determine if a component of two
CMEs appearing at 08/1612UT and 08/1648UT is likely to have a
glancing impact with Earth. The solar wind increased over UT
day 08-Jan, rising from approximately 350 km/s early in the UT
day to reach 400-420 km/s over the last six hours. This is likely
due to the influence of a coronal hole high-speed wind stream.
The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at
14 nT, coincident with the rise in solar wind speed. The north-south
component (Bz) of the magnetic field ranged between -12 and +9
nT, with a prolonged period of southward Bz observed at the start
of the UT day until 08/0655UT. The solar wind speed is expected
to continue increasing over 09-Jan as the high-speed wind stream
persists and a potential glancing impact of a CME first observed
on 07-Jan approaches Earth. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated over 10-11 Jan as the Earth moves through
this coronal hole high-speed wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Jan : A K
Australian Region 12 33432122
Cocos Island 8 32321122
Darwin 11 33331123
Townsville 11 23432122
Learmonth 9 32332122
Alice Springs 9 23332122
Gingin 11 33431122
Canberra 10 22432122
Kennaook Cape Grim 12 33432122
Hobart 10 23432112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jan :
Macquarie Island 11 23442012
Casey 29 55552233
Mawson 32 55542245
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 1100 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jan 30 G1
10 Jan 30 G0-G1
11 Jan 18 G0 chance G1
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
at the G0 level across UT 08-Jan. Periods of G1 geomagnetic activity
were observed in the Antarctic region. Conditions are expected
to reach G1 on 09-Jan due to the influence of a coronal hole
high-speed wind stream and possible effects of a partial CME
impact. G0-G1 conditions are forecast for 10-11 Jan as the Earth
continues to pass through this coronal hole high-speed wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
10 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
11 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were Normal-Fair over
UT day 08-Jan, with some depressions observed in the African
region during local daytime. Some mild depressions were seen
in Europe, with MUFs in the European region near monthly predicted
values. Ionospheric conditions are expected to be Fair-Normal
over 09-11 Jan due to the effects of the coronal hole high-speed
wind stream. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jan 115
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 50% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 89
Feb 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jan 70 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
10 Jan 70 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
11 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were enhanced by 15-25% over UT day 08-Jan, with values
trending towards predicted monthly values during local night
hours and accompanied by some Sporadic-E. Spread F was also observed
during local night hours in the southern Australian region. MUFs
were near predicted monthly values in the Antarctic region. MUFs
are forecast to become depressed relative to current values over
09-11 Jan, with depressions of 10-15% forecast due to geomagnetic
activity. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible, and sporadic-E
may be observed during local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jan
Speed: 341 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 26700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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