[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 January 26 issued 2331 UT on 07 Jan 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Jan 8 10:31:00 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JANUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JANUARY - 10 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jan: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan
Activity R1 R1 R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 132/86 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was at the R0 level throughout UT day
07-Jan, with a C7.4 flare from Active Region (AR) 4334 (S15E08,
beta) being the largest observed over the past 24 hours. This
region is one of six numbered regions on the visible solar disk,
with nearby AR 4336 (S09E41, beta) the largest and most magnetically
complex. Both of these regions have remained mostly stable over
the past UT day, with a redistribution of minor spots in both
regions observed. A new active region emerged at N30W35, and
appears to have a beta magnetic classification. All other regions
appear stable or in decay, with four regions expected to rotate
off the solar disk over the next UT day. Solar conditions are
expected to reach R1 levels over 08-10 Jan. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions were observed throughout 07-Jan, and are forecast
to continue at the S0 level over the period 08-10 Jan. Two faint
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed over the last 24
hours. The first occurred at 07/0423UT in the southeast, appearing
coincident with a low C-class flare in AR 4334. The second occurred
at 07/1100UT, also appearing to originate from AR 4334. While
these are both expected to miss the Earth, a small component
of these CMEs may impact the Earth on 09-Jan. However, any effects
from these CMEs will likely be secondary to high-speed wind stream
effects from an equatorial coronal hole expected to connect with
the Earth during this time. The solar wind speed was light over
the last UT day, consistently ranging between 320-360 km/s. The
interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 10
nT during 07-Jan, with the North-South component (Bz) ranging
between -8 and +7 nT, and a prolonged period of southward Bz
observed since 07/2030UT. The solar wind speed is expected to
remain mostly light during 08-Jan, with a potential increase
late in the UT day due to an equatorial coronal hole that will
move into a geoeffective position by 09-Jan. The solar wind speed
will then increase over 09-10 Jan due the high-speed wind stream
effects of this coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 21001122
Cocos Island 2 11011012
Darwin 4 22101022
Townsville 3 21001122
Learmonth 3 21001122
Alice Springs 3 22001022
Gingin 4 21101122
Canberra 3 11001122
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 11001122
Hobart 3 11001122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 11000021
Casey 15 44432222
Mawson 10 23112243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1012 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jan 10 G0
09 Jan 30 G1
10 Jan 30 G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed across the Australian
and Antarctic regions during UT day 07-Jan. This was also observed
at the planetary level. G0 conditions are expected for 08-Jan,
rising to G1 on 09-10 Jan due to an equatorial coronal hole high-speed
wind stream connecting with Earth, as well as effects from a
possible glancing coronal mass ejection impact.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
10 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions were Normal-Fair during 07-Jan,
with largely normal conditions reported at most sites. Some depressions
were seen during local dawn hours in the South American and Asian
regions. Depressions were also observed during local evening
hours in the North American and European regions, with MUFs depressed
up to 15% during local night in the European region, particularly
at high latitudes. Conditions are forecast to be Normal over
08-Jan, before becoming Fair-Normal over 09-10 Jan due to coronal
hole high-speed wind stream effects. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jan 144
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 89
Feb 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jan 105 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
09 Jan 80 Depressed 10 to 15% /near predicted monthly values
10 Jan 80 Depressed 10 to 15% /near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were enhanced by 15-20% during UT day 07-Jan, with enhancements
of up to 30% reported in the Northern Australian region. The
Antarctic and Niue Island regions were near predicted monthly
values. Strong sporadic-E affected mid- and polar latitudes during
local night hours. 10-20% enhancements in MUFs are expected on
08-Jan, then declining to be 10% depressed during 09-10 Jan due
to coronal hole high-speed wind stream effects. Sporadic-E is
possible during local night hours. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jan
Speed: 369 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 33500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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