[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 January 26 issued 2330 UT on 06 Jan 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Jan 7 10:30:50 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JANUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jan: 145/99
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 135/89 132/86
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 06-Jan was at the R0
level, with no significant flare activity observed over the past
24 hours. There are currently six active regions on the Sun,
with Active Region (AR) 4336 (S09E55, beta-gamma) being the largest.
This region recently rotated onto the disk. This region has grown
slightly in size and shows flaring potential. AR 4334 (S15E40,
beta-gamma) has also shown some mild growth and East-West separation.
All other regions are either stable or in decay. Four regions
are expected to rotate off disk over the 07-09 Jan, being AR
4323, 4324, 4325 and 4333. Solar flare activity is forecast to
reach the R1 level, with a chance of R2 over 07-08 Jan due to
the past flare activity of AR 4325 and 4324 (N26W52, alpha).
This will decline to R1 for the 09-Jan, as a number of regions
rotate of disk. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed
over the past 24 hours, with the proton flux at background levels.
S0 conditions are forecast to persist over the period 07-09 Jan.
No new geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed
over the past UT day. The solar wind speed was stable over the
06-Jan, ranging between 400 - 340 km/s. It is likely to remain
at this level until the arrival of a Coronal Hole High Speed
Wind Stream, on approximately the 09-Jan. The interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 8 nT during 06-Jan,
with the North-South component (Bz) ranging between -6 and +6
nT during this time. While much of the 06-Jan experienced southward
Bz, this component began to increase at approximately 1100 UTC.
Since then, Bz has been largely positive.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 11123111
Cocos Island 5 12123110
Darwin 5 21123111
Townsville 6 11123122
Learmonth 7 21124111
Alice Springs 5 20123111
Gingin 5 21123101
Canberra 4 11023011
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 11123011
Hobart 4 11123011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 11011000
Casey 14 34343122
Mawson 12 33343121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14 3443 3112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jan 5 G0
08 Jan 5 G0
09 Jan 30 G1, chance G2
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed throughout the
Australian region on the 06-Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
also observed in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 07-08 Jan. G1, chance G2 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on the 09-Jan due to a recurring Coronal Hole High
Speed Wind Stream, moving into a geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 06-Jan were
normal, with some degradation seen in high latitude regions.
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be normal over
07-08 Jan. Conditions are expected to begin degrading over the
09-Jan, due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Conditions on
this day may range from normal to fair. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jan 97
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 89
Feb 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jan 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Jan 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were enhanced 15-20%
compared with predicted monthly values during UT day 06-Jan,
in the Northern Australian region. MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values in the Southern Australian region. Sporadic-E
was observed across the Australian region during local night
hours, with mild spread F observed in Canberra, Perth, Brisbane
and Townsville during local night. MUFs are forecast to remain
enhanced over the 07-08 Jan. MUFs will likely decline to near
predicted monthly values on the 09-Jan, due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible, and sporadic-E may
be observed during local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jan
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 50100 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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