[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 January 26 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jan 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Jan 6 10:30:50 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JANUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan: 154/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 152/107 148/102 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Jan was at the R0 level,
with no significant flare activity observed over the past 24
hours. There are currently six active regions on the Sun, with
Active Region (AR) 4325 (S09W59, beta-gamma) remaining the largest.
All regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is
forecast to reach the R1 level, with a chance of R2 over 06-08
Jan due to the past flare activity of AR 4325 and 4324 (N26W52,
alpha). S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed over
the past 24 hours, with the proton flux at background levels.
S0 conditions are forecast to persist over the period 06-08 Jan.
No new geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed
over the past UT day. Two notable CMEs were observed, however
analysis has shown them to not be Earth directed. The solar wind
speed showed a gradual decline throughout the 05-Jan, ranging
between 480 - 380 km/s. It is likely to remain at this level
until the arrival of a Coronal Hole High Speed Wind Stream, on
approximately the 09-Jan. The interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) peaked at 10 nT during 05-Jan, with the North-South
component (Bz) ranging between -10 and +7 nT during this time.
While much of the 05-Jan experienced notable southward Bz, this
component began to increase at approximately 1220 UTC. Since
then, Bz has remained between -4 and 1 nT. The solar wind is
expected to remain stable throughout 06-08 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 23333112
Cocos Island 3 12212001
Darwin 10 23323113
Townsville 12 33333123
Learmonth 9 33223003
Alice Springs 9 23333012
Gingin 10 23333112
Canberra 10 23333112
Kennaook Cape Grim 11 24333112
Hobart 11 24333112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jan :
Macquarie Island 23 24536102
Casey 32 65553222
Mawson 26 45633223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 0001 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jan 5 G0
07 Jan 5 G0
08 Jan 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed throughout the
Australian region on 05-Jan. G2 conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 conditions are expected over 06-08
Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 05-Jan were
normal, with some degradation seen in high latitude regions.
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be normal over
06-08 Jan. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jan 144
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 89
Feb 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jan 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Jan 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Jan 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were enhanced 15-25%
compared with predicted monthly values during UT day 05-Jan,
in the Australian region. Depressions of up to 20% were seen
in the Northern Australian region during local night. Sporadic-E
was observed across the Australian region during local night
hours, with mild spread F observed in Canberra during local night.
MUFs are forecast to remain enhanced over the 06-08 Jan. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible, and sporadic-E may be observed during
local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jan
Speed: 442 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 98600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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