[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 January 26 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jan 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Jan 5 10:30:49 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JANUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan: 157/111
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Jan was at the R0 level,
with no significant flare activity observed over the past 24
hours. There are currently seven active regions on the Sun, with
Active Region (AR) 4325 (S09W47, beta) being the largest. This
region has shown minor decay over the last UT day. Active Region
4334 (S15E50, alpha) has exhibited some growth over the same
period. Newly numbered AR 4336 has recently rotated onto the
front side of the disk at S08W77 and currently displays an alpha
magnetic classification. All other regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is forecast to reach the R1 level,
with a chance of R2 over 05-06 Jan due to the past flare activity
of AR 4325 and 4324. This is expected to decline to R1 on 07-Jan
as these regions rotate towards the western limb. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions were observed over the past 24 hours, with the
proton flux at background levels. S0 conditions are forecast
to persist over the period 05-07 Jan. No new geoeffective Coronal
Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed over the past UT day. The
solar wind speed was slightly elevated on 04-Jan, ranging between
420 - 460 km/s throughout most of the day. This has become elevated
over the last few hours, with current speeds between 470-500
km/s, likely due to a glancing impact from a CME first observed
on 01-Jan. The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt)
was low throughout most of UT day 04-Jan, but has recently risen
to a peak of 10 nT due to the CME arrival. The north-south component
(Bz) ranged between -8 and +5 nT during the past 24 hours, with
a period of extended southward Bz between 04/2045 - 2220 UT.
The solar wind is expected to remain elevated during the early
part of 05-Jan due to the ongoing impact of this CME. The solar
wind speed will then trend towards background levels over 06-07
Jan, as the effects of this CME diminish.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 11020223
Cocos Island 4 01110223
Darwin 7 11111224
Townsville 5 11021223
Learmonth 5 01120223
Alice Springs 5 11020223
Gingin 4 11020222
Canberra 4 10010223
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 11020223
Hobart 4 11020123
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 00000012
Casey 9 23222133
Mawson 8 21121224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Hobart 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 3322 3331
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jan 16 G0, chance G1
06 Jan 9 G0
07 Jan 7 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed throughout the
Australian region on 04-Jan. G0 conditions were also observed
in the Antarctic region, as well as reported at the planetary
level. G0 conditions, with a chance of G1, are expected for 05-Jan,
due to the effects of a Coronal Mass Ejection impact with Earth.
G0 conditions are forecast for 06-07 Jan as these effects wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
06 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
07 Jan Normal Normal Fair
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were Fair-Normal over
04-Jan, with depressions observed in the European region during
local night hours, where MUFs were depressed by up to 15%. Degradations
were also observed in the Asian region during local dawn. Ionospheric
conditions are expected to remain Fair-Normal on 05-Jan due to
ongoing geomagnetic activity, improving to Normal on 06-07 Jan.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jan 139
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 89
Feb 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jan 70 Depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
06 Jan 105 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on
4 January and is current for 4-5 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) were enhanced 15-25% compared with predicted monthly values
during UT day 04-Jan in the Australian region, with enhancements
up to 40% observed in the northern Australian region during local
night hours. MUFs were near predicted monthly values at Niue
Island as well as in the Antarctic region. Strong low-frequency
sporadic-E was observed across the Australian region during local
night hours, with mild spread F observed in the southern Australian
region. MUFs are forecast to be up to 10% depressed on 05-Jan
due to a recent CME arrival. These conditions are expected to
improve over 06-07 Jan as these effects abate. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible, and sporadic-E may be observed during local night
hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 507 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 174000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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