[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 January 26 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jan 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Jan 4 10:30:49 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JANUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan: 165/119
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity was at the R0 level on UT day 03-Jan,
with only C-class flares observed. There are currently five numbered
sunspot regions and two unnumbered regions on the solar disk,
with Active Region (AR) 4325 (S09W34, beta) being the largest
and most magnetically complex. It has continued to show minor
decay over the last 24 hours, but has produced several C-class
flares. Region 4333 (S10W09, beta) exhibited significant growth
over the same period. A new small active region has appeared
at N07W29, and shows a beta magnetic classification. All other
regions appear stable or in decay. Solar activity is forecast
to be at the R1 level, with a chance of R2 activity over 04-06
Jan due to the ongoing activity in AR 4324 and 4325. Solar radiation
storm conditions were at the S0 level during UT day 03-Jan, and
S0 conditions are forecast to continue over the period 04-06
Jan. No new geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed
in the past 24 hours. A glancing impact from a CME first observed
at 01/1936UT is expected to arrive at Earth during UT day 04-Jan.
The solar wind speed was elevated at the beginning of UT day
03-Jan, likely due to the arrival of a CME first observed on
31-Dec. The solar wind speed declined from 600-650 km/s early
in the UT day as the CME effects waned, and has ranged between
450-500 km/s over the last six hours. The interplanetary magnetic
field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 9 nT during 03-Jan, with the
North-South component (Bz) ranging between -7 and +6 nT during
this time. There were also periods of extended southward Bz between
03/1200UT and 03/1600UT. The solar wind speed is forecast to
decline during the early part of 04-Jan, and increase later in
the UT day due to the arrival of the second CME. Conditions will
ease over 05-06 Jan as the effects of this CME subside.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 33223222
Cocos Island 6 22222221
Darwin 10 33213223
Townsville 13 3-423223
Learmonth 11 33223322
Alice Springs 10 33113223
Gingin 11 33223322
Canberra 11 33224222
Kennaook Cape Grim 11 33224222
Hobart 12 33224232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jan :
Macquarie Island 20 23236422
Casey 34 46653232
Mawson 23 35533432
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 24 3432 3355
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jan 24 G0-G1
05 Jan 12 G0
06 Jan 10 G0
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at the G0 level in the Australian
region throughout 03-Jan, as the effects of a CME first observed
on 31-Dec eased. Periods of G1-G2 were observed in the Antarctic
region, while G0 conditions were reported at the planetary level.
G0-G1 conditions are expected for 04-Jan due to a glancing impact
from a CME first observed on 01-Jan. These conditions will ease
on 05-06 Jan, with G0 geomagnetic conditions expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
05 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 03-Jan were
mostly Normal, with some depressions seen in the European and
Asian regions during local dawn hours. MUFs in the European region
were mostly near predicted values. Some mild depressions were
also seen in the Australian and South African regions at the
start of the UT day. Conditions are forecast to become Fair-normal
over 04-Jan, due to expected geomagnetic activity. These conditions
are expected to return to Normal over 05-06 Jan as this geomagnetic
activity abates. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jan 119
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 89
Feb 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jan 75 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
05 Jan 95 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jan 105 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values during UT day 03-Jan in the Australian region,
with enhancements of 20-30% observed in the Northern Australian
and Niue Island regions. MUFs were also near predicted monthly
values in the Antarctic region. Low-frequency sporadic-E was
observed in the southern Australian region, with spread F observed
in Hobart. MUFs are forecast to be up to 10-15% depressed on
04-Jan due to an anticipated CME arrival. These conditions are
expected to improve over 05-06 Jan as this CME passes Earth.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible, and sporadic-E may be observed
during local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed: 568 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 244000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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