[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 January 26 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jan 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Jan 3 10:30:51 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JANUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jan: 166/120
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 166/120 160/114 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity for UT day 02-Jan was at the R0 level,
with no M-class or greater flares observed. There are currently
seven numbered and two unnumbered regions on the solar disk,
with Active Region (AR) 4325 (S09W20, beta) remaining the largest
and most magnetically complex. Both AR 4325 and previously flare-active
AR 4324 (N26W13, beta) have remained mostly stable, showing minor
decay in their trailer spots. Region 4333 (S10E05, beta) has
shown some growth over the last UT day and has produced several
C-class flares. AR 4323 (S15W15, beta) has also shown significant
growth over the last 24 hours. New Region 4334 (S12E74, alpha)
has rotated over the eastern limb and appears stable, though
its magnetic classification is affected by foreshortening. Two
new small regions also appeared on the disk at (N16W40) and (S17E17),
both of which appear magnetically simple. All other regions appear
stable or in decay. Solar conditions are expected to remain at
the R1 level, with a chance of R2 activity over 03-05 Jan. S0
solar radiation storm conditions were observed over the past
24 hours, with the proton flux at background levels. Solar radiation
storm conditions are forecast to be at the S0 level over the
period 03-05 Jan. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed
in SOHO imagery from 01/1936UT, associated with a flare from
AR4324. Modelling of this CME suggests a glancing impact with
Earth, which is expected to arrive at 04/1400UT +/-12 hours.
The solar wind increased over the past UT day, starting at 470-500
km/s early in the UT day. ACE EPAM registered an energetic ion
enhancement event beginning 02/0935UT, coinciding with a solar
wind speed increase, currently ranging between 600-650 km/s.
The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at
10 nT during 02-Jan. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between
-16 and +16 nT during the last 24 hours, with two periods of
significant southward Bz between 02/1730-1830UT and 02/2000-2145UT.
The solar wind speed is forecast to remain high over 03-04 Jan
due to the effects of the two previously mentioned CMEs. The
solar wind is expected to decline by 05-Jan as the effects of
these CMEs wane.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Jan : A K
Australian Region 16 32324343
Cocos Island 10 22223242
Darwin 15 32223344
Townsville 16 23323344
Learmonth 16 32324343
Alice Springs 16 32323344
Gingin 18 32324353
Canberra 15 23324243
Kennaook Cape Grim 18 33324253
Hobart 17 33324343
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jan :
Macquarie Island 23 23335453
Casey 49 56654355
Mawson 58 56534476
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 2333 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jan 33 G1-G2
04 Jan 24 G0-G1
05 Jan 12 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 1 January
and is current for 2-3 Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region during UT day 02-Jan, with isolated
periods of G1 in Gingin and Kennaook/Cape Grim. Periods of G1-G3
were observed in the Antarctic regions, and G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed at the planetary level. These conditions were due
to the arrival of a CME, with a weak (9nT) impulse observed at
1557UT. G1-G2 geomagnetic storm conditions are forecast for 03-Jan,
due to the ongoing effects of this CME impact. A further partial
CME impact at Earth is expected on 04-Jan, with G0-G1 conditions
forecast for this day. This will decline to G0 on 05-Jan as the
effects of these CME impacts wane.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Fair Fair Fair-poor
04 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 02-Jan were
Normal, with some mild depressions in the European region during
local night hours. MUFs in the European region were near predicted
values. Some enhancements were seen in the Australian and Asian
regions over this period. Conditions are forecast to become Fair
over 03-Jan, due to ongoing geomagnetic activity. Fair-normal
conditions are expected on 04-Jan from further mild geomagnetic
activity, before trending towards normal by 05-Jan. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jan 134
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 89
Feb 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jan 60 Depressed 20 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
04 Jan 75 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
05 Jan 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 1 was issued
on 1 January and is current for 3 Jan only. ASWFC SWF HF Communications
Warning 2 was issued on 1 January and is current for 1-3 Jan.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were largely near predicted
values during UT day 02-Jan, with enhancements between 25-40%
observed in the Northern Australia and Niue Island region during
local night hours. Low-frequency sporadic-E was observed, with
spread F also observed in Hobart during local night hours. MUFs
are expected to be 20-30% depressed on 03-Jan due to ongoing
geomagnetic activity. Depressions of 15-20% are expected to remain
over 04-Jan, before trending towards predicted monthly values
by 05-Jan, as the geomagnetic activity subsides. Sporadic-E may
be observed during local night hours. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jan
Speed: 479 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 130000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list