[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 January 26 issued 2335 UT on 01 Jan 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Jan 2 10:35:39 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JANUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JANUARY - 04 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jan: 169/123
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 168/122 166/120 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-Jan was at R0. The two solar
regions of interest AR4324 (N26W01, beta-delta) and AR4325 (S09W08,
beta-gamma) have both shown some decay. The trailer spots of
AR4324 have recently shown some decay with the delta spot in
the trailers now very small and whilst solar region AR4325 has
increased in longitudinal extent the intermediate spots have
shown some decay late in the UT day. Both these regions produced
C class flares with the largest a C9.6 flare at 01/0225UT from
AR4325. There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible
on the solar disk. All other sunspot regions are small and either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R1, chance
R2 levels over 02-04 Jan. S0 solar proton conditions were observed
on UT day 01-Jan. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over
02-04 Jan. A large solar limb prominence was observed erupting
in GOES SUVI 304 on the southeast solar limb at 01/0600UT. This
event appeared to trigger instability/emission in an on disk
solar filament located at S15E35, though it did not cause the
filament to lift off the disk. No Earth directed CMEs have been
observed in the past 24 hours. A bright south southeast CME was
observed from 01/0624UT in association with the southeast limb
prominence eruption and was directed steeply out of the ecliptic
plane. A faint north northeast CME was observed from 01/1924UT
which is not considered significant. The solar wind speed on
UT day 01-Jan was moderate and steady, ranging from 430 to 530
km/s and is currently near 430 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was -8 to +8 nT. The solar wind speed
is initially expected to be light to moderate then becoming strongly
enhanced during the second half of 02-Jan and first half of 03-Jan
due to the anticipated glancing blow arrival of the M7/CME.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Jan : A K
Australian Region 11 22334222
Cocos Island 8 22233221
Darwin 13 22334323
Townsville 13 22334323
Learmonth 17 22335333
Alice Springs 11 22334222
Gingin 16 22335332
Canberra 10 22333222
Kennaook Cape Grim 12 23334222
Hobart 12 23334222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jan :
Macquarie Island 16 22345322
Casey 38 56644333
Mawson 25 44434444
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2122 3111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jan 45 Initially G0, then G2 second half of the UT day.
03 Jan 30 Initially G2, then G0-G1 second half of the UT
day.
04 Jan 12 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 1 January
and is current for 2-3 Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 01-Jan, with a slight increase
in geomagnetic activity. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected
from the second half of the UT day on 02-Jan and into the first
half of the UT day 03-Jan due to the anticipated glancing blow
arrival of the M7/CME observed on 31-Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal Normal-poor Fair-poor
03 Jan Normal Poor-fair Poor-fair
04 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 01-Jan were
fair normal. HF conditions are expected to become fair to poor
from mid to late 02-Jan due the anticipated arrival of a CME.
Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jan 130
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 89
Feb 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jan 110 10-15% enhanced then depressed 20 to 30% late
in the UT day
03 Jan 60 Depressed 20 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
04 Jan 75 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 1 was issued
on 1 January and is current for 3 Jan only. ASWFC SWF HF Communications
Warning 2 was issued on 1 January and is current for 1-3 Jan.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on
UT day 01-Jan were near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
Spread F was observed at Hobart overnight. Perth MUFs are depressed
15% after local dawn and this mild depression is not expected
to persist. MUFs are initially expected to be 10-15% enhanced
on 02-Jan then becoming depressed 20-30% late in the UT day due
to the anticipated arrival of a CME associated with the recent
M7 flare. MUFs on 03-Jan are expected to be 20-30% depressed
and possibly 15% depressed on 04-Jan depending on the strength
of the anticipated geomagnetic activity. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Dec
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 87200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list