[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 January 26 issued 2330 UT on 22 Jan 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Jan 23 10:30:51 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JANUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan: 194/146
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jan 24 Jan 25 Jan
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 192/144 192/144 190/143
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R0 level on UT day 22-Jan,
with a C9.5 flare from Active Region (AR) 4350 (N20E20, alpha)
at 22/1954UT being the largest observed. There are currently
nine numbered active regions on the disk, with AR 4345 (S16W25,
beta) being the largest and most magnetically complex. This region
has exhibited some minor growth over the previous UT day, with
regions 4350, 4351 (S04E11, beta), and 4354 (S13E14, beta) also
showing growth over the last 24 hours. A new unnumbered region
has rotated over the eastern limb at (S11E80). While this region
is coincident with a possible return of previously flare-active
region 4325, this new region appears small and magnetically simple.
All other regions on the disk are either stable or in decay.
Solar flare activity is expected to reach R1-R2 levels over the
period 23-25 Jan. Solar radiation storm conditions briefly reached
the S1 level at 22/0500UT, with the proton flux ranging between
2.16-10.6 pfu throughout the day. The solar proton flux is expected
to decline over 23-Jan, with S0 solar radiation storm conditions
are forecast, with a chance of reaching S1. S0 conditions are
forecast over Jan 24-25, as the proton flux continues to trend
toward background levels. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections
(CMEs) were observed over the past 24 hours. A small, narrow
CME associated with a filament eruption was observed in SOHO
coronagraph imagery at 22/0224UT. Subsequent modelling has determined
this event will not impact the Earth. The solar wind continued
to decline on UT day 22-Jan, with the wind speed declining from
600-630 km/s early in the UT day to 500-530 km/s over the last
six hours. The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt)
peaked at 11 nT during 22-Jan, with the North-South component
(Bz) ranging between -7 and +8 nT during this time. An extended
period of southward Bz began at 22/2045UT and is ongoing. The
solar wind is expected to slowly trend towards background levels
over 23-25 Jan as the effects of a previous CME that impacted
Earth on 19-Jan continue to subside, and a coronal high speed
wind stream moves out of a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 32232223
Cocos Island 6 22222212
Darwin 10 32232223
Townsville 11 32233223
Learmonth 11 32233313
Alice Springs 9 32232213
Gingin 9 32322222
Canberra 11 33332113
Kennaook Cape Grim 12 33332223
Hobart 12 33332223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jan :
Macquarie Island 8 22322213
Casey 31 45653233
Mawson 32 55433336
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 83 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 45
Planetary 73 7776 4433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jan 9 G0
24 Jan 10 G0
25 Jan 9 G0
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
at G0 levels on UT day 22-Jan, as the effects of a previous coronal
mass ejection impact continue to ease. G0 conditions were also
observed at the planetary level, with some intervals of G1-G2
activity reported in the Antarctic region. G0 conditions are
forecast for 23-25 Jan, as geomagnetic effects from both the
previously mentioned CME, and a coronal hole high speed wind
stream both continue to subside.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2240UT 18/01, Ended at 1640UT 21/01
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions continued to improve over
UT day 22-Jan following geomagnetic activity from a coronal mass
ejection impact on 19-Jan. Conditions were observed to be Fair
at many sites across the globe at the beginning of the UT day,
but improved towards Normal conditions by the end of the UT day.
MUFs in the European region were depressed 20% during local night,
but recovered towards predicted values during local daytime.
Ionospheric conditions are forecast to continue to recover, improving
to Normal-Fair on 23-Jan, trending towards Normal conditions
on 24-25 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jan 85
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 89
Feb 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jan 70 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jan 81 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 14 was issued on
21 January and is current for 21-23 Jan. Ionospheric conditions
continued to recover in the Australian region on UT day 22-Jan
following the coronal mass ejection impact with Earth on 19-Jan.
Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region trended
towards near predicted monthly values over the UT day, with some
enhancements seen in northern Australia and Niue Island. Strong
sporadic E was visible during night hours in southern Australia,
and spread F was observed in Hobart. MUFs will continue to trend
towards predicted monthly values over 23-25 Jan, with some enhancements
possible. Sporadic E may be observed during local night hours,
and shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 660 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 80200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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