[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 February 26 issued 2330 UT on 15 Feb 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Feb 16 10:30:48 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 FEBRUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 15-Feb was at the R0
level, with no flares above C2.0 in magnitude. There are currently
five numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. All
sunspot regions are small, magnetically simple and appear stable.
Solar flare activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 16-18
Feb. S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 15-Feb.
S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 16-18 Feb. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed on UT day 15-Feb.
The solar wind speed increased on 15-Feb, mostly ranging between
480 to 750 km/s. The wind speed is currently at around 620 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 13 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -11
to +10 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to mostly remain
at current levels over 16-17 Feb with a decline possible from
late on 17-Feb to 18-Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Feb : A K
Australian Region 11 34222322
Cocos Island 7 33221220
Darwin 14 44222323
Townsville 12 34232322
Learmonth 15 44232422
Alice Springs 12 34232322
Gingin 14 44232322
Canberra 11 34222322
Kennaook Cape Grim 12 34223322
Hobart 13 34323232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Feb :
Macquarie Island 26 46233531
Casey 28 45643322
Mawson 48 57644344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 41 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11 3300 1134
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Feb 12 G0
17 Feb 8 G0
18 Feb 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 15-Feb. G1 conditions were observed at the planetary
level in the first two periods of the UT day. Mostly G2 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with a period
of G3 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 16-18 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly normal on
UT day 15-Feb, with fair conditions observed at mid and high
latitudes particularly at the beginning and end of the UT day.
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 16-18 Feb. Mild
degradations are possible on 16-Feb due to recent geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Feb 93
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 96
Feb 88
Mar 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Feb 90 Near predicted monthly values
17 Feb 90 Near predicted monthly values
18 Feb 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values on UT day 15-Feb.
Depressions of up to 15% were observed in the southern Australian
region during local night due to recent geomagnetic activity.
Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. Sporadic
E was observed in the southern Australian region, mostly during
local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 16-18 Feb, with a chance of mild depressions in the
southern Australian region on 16-Feb due to recent geomagnetic
activity. Sporadic E is likely during local night hours in the
southern Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 441 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 168000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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