[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 February 26 issued 2332 UT on 14 Feb 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Feb 15 10:32:48 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 FEBRUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 14-Feb was at the R0
level, with the largest flare an impulsive C6.0 flare at 14/1112UT.
There are currently five numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR4374 (N09E04, alpha) is the largest active
region on the solar disk and was responsible for the largest
flare of the UT day, this region appears stable and magnetically
simple. All other sunspot regions are stable. Solar flare activity
is expected to be at the R0 level over 15-17 Feb, with a chance
of R1. S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 14-Feb.
S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 15-17 Feb. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed on UT day 14-Feb.
The solar wind speed decreased for most of the UT day 13-Feb,
before increasing again after 14/1500UT, mostly ranging between
355 to 520 km/s. The wind speed is currently at around 505 km/s.
The increase in solar wind speed is likely due to an early connection
to a high speed wind stream from an equatorial coronal hole.
The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 15 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -14
to +8 nT. The solar wind is expected to continue to increase
on 15-Feb due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
The solar wind environment is expected to be enhanced on 16-Feb
with a decrease in wind speed possible on 17-Feb.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 21000134
Cocos Island 6 21000134
Darwin 7 21001134
Townsville 5 21000133
Learmonth 7 21010234
Alice Springs 5 21000133
Gingin 8 21000144
Canberra 4 11000033
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 11000134
Hobart 5 21000133
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Feb :
Macquarie Island 5 12000124
Casey 16 34321135
Mawson 29 33211157
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 14 4232 2334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Feb 18 G0, chance of G1
16 Feb 15 G0, chance of G1
17 Feb 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 14-Feb. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with a period of G3 observed
at Mawson and a period of G1 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic
conditions, with an chance of G1 are expected on 15-16 Feb due
to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. G0 conditions
are expected on 17-Feb.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly normal on
UT day 14-Feb, with fair conditions observed at mid and high
latitudes particularly at the beginning and end of the UT day.
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 15-17 Feb. Mild
degradations are possible over 15-16 Feb due to possible geomagnetic
activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Feb 93
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 96
Feb 88
Mar 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Feb 90 Near predicted monthly values
16 Feb 90 Near predicted monthly values
17 Feb 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were near predicted monthly values on UT day 14-Feb. Spread
F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. Sporadic E
was observed throughout the Australian region, mostly during
local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 15-17 Feb, with a chance of mild depressions in the
southern Australian region over 15-16 Feb due to possible geomagnetic
activity. Sporadic E is likely during local night hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 81500 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list