[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 February 26 issued 2330 UT on 16 Feb 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Feb 17 10:30:49 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 FEBRUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Feb: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.4 0435UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Feb: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 16-Feb was at the R1
level due to an M2.4 flare at 16/0435UT produced by an active
region beyond the eastern limb. There are currently five numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4374 (N12W23, beta)
is the largest region on the disk and has exhibited spot development
in its trailer spots over the UT day. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 17-19 Feb. S0 solar proton conditions
were observed on UT day 16-Feb. S0 solar proton conditions are
expected over 17-19 Feb. A small filament eruption was observed,
visible in H-alpha imagery at 16/1240UT centred near S13E10.
A subsequent associated faint coronal mass ejection (CME) was
observed in STEREO-A coronagraph imagery from 16/1323UT. Modelling
indicates this CME contains a geoeffective component, with an
expected arrival at 18/0600UT +/- 10 hours. The effects of this
CME are not expected to be significant. An east-directed CME
was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 16/0424UT.
This CME is associated with the aforementioned M2.4 flare and
is not considered geoeffective. No other Earth-directed CMEs
have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 16-Feb mildly
increased, ranging from 550 to 700 km/s and is currently near
650 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was -7 to +7 nT. A period of sustained southward IMF conditions
was observed over the interval 16/1652-1819UT. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain elevated over 17-19 Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Feb : A K
Australian Region 12 32322342
Cocos Island 9 22221340
Darwin 10 32222332
Townsville 12 32322333
Learmonth 15 32222452
Alice Springs 10 22322332
Gingin 15 32222452
Canberra 12 22332342
Kennaook Cape Grim 17 32332452
Hobart 17 32332452
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Feb :
Macquarie Island 45 35552572
Casey 22 44443343
Mawson 64 75643573
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 58 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 36
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 26 5533 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Feb 20 G1, chance of G2
18 Feb 16 G0, chance of G1
19 Feb 14 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 16 February
and is current for 17 Feb only. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 16-Feb, with isolated
local periods of G1 observed at Learmonth, Gingin, Hobart and
Kennaook Cape Grim. G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed at
the planetary level. G3 conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region. G1 planetary geomagnetic conditions are expected on 17-Feb,
with a chance of G2 due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind
stream effects. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 18-19
Feb, with a chance of G1 on 18-Feb due to a weak CME arrival
from a filament eruption first observed on 16-Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
18 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly normal on
UT day 16-Feb, with fair conditions observed at high latitudes.
Normal to fair HF conditions are expected over 17-19 Feb. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Feb 104
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 96
Feb 88
Mar 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Feb 90 Near predicted monthly values
18 Feb 95 Near predicted monthly values
19 Feb 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced in
northern Australia on UT day 16-Feb. Spread F was observed at
Hobart during local night hours. Sporadic E was observed in southern
Australian regions, mostly during local night hours. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values over 17-19 Feb,
with a chance of mild depressions in southern Australia on 17-Feb
due to ongoing geomagnetic activity. Sporadic E is possible during
local night hours in southern Australian regions. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Feb
Speed: 617 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 351000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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