[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 February 26 issued 2330 UT on 12 Feb 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Feb 13 10:30:48 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 FEBRUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Feb: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 0240UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Feb: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 12-Feb was at the R1
level due to an M1.4 flare at 12/0240UT. This beyond-the-limb
flare was produced by AR4366. There are currently six numbered
and one unnumbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk.
AR4373 (N07W09, beta-gamma) is the most magnetically complex
region on the disk and has shown mild growth in its trailer spots
over the UT day. An unnumbered region recently appeared near
N15E40 (alpha) and has shown mild spot growth. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is
expected to be at the R0 level over 13-15 Feb, with a chance
of R1. S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 12-Feb.
S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 13-15 Feb. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed. The solar wind
speed on UT day 12-Feb mildly declined, ranging from 370 to 445
km/s and is currently near 395 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was -7 to +5 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain near background levels over 13-14 Feb.
A narrow equatorial coronal hole is currently crossing the central
meridian and may influence the solar wind speed late on 15-Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 22221211
Cocos Island 3 12121200
Darwin 6 22221212
Townsville 6 22222211
Learmonth 6 32222201
Alice Springs 5 22221211
Gingin 5 22221211
Canberra 5 22221211
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 23231211
Hobart 9 33231212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Feb :
Macquarie Island 11 22242411
Casey 16 35432222
Mawson 17 34433323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 18 4333 2334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Feb 8 G0
14 Feb 6 G0
15 Feb 14 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 12-Feb. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 13-15 Feb, with a chance of G1 on 15-Feb due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly normal on
UT day 12-Feb, with fair conditions observed at mid and high
latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 13-15
Feb.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Feb 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 96
Feb 88
Mar 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
14 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
15 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 21 was issued on
11 February and is current for 11-13 Feb. Maximum Usable Frequencies
(MUFs) in northern Australian regions were near predicted monthly
values on UT day 11-Feb. Southern Australian MUFs were depressed
by 15% during local day. Spread F was observed at Hobart during
local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 13-15 Feb.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Feb
Speed: 456 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 123000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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