[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 February 26 issued 2330 UT on 13 Feb 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Sat Feb 14 10:30:50 AEDT 2026

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 FEBRUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Feb:  R1

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    0858UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb: 117/69

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Feb             15 Feb             16 Feb
Activity     R0, chance of R1   R0, chance of R1   R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             110/60

COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 13-Feb was at the R1 
level due to an M1.0 flare at 13/0858UT. There are currently 
four numbered and one unnumbered sunspot regions visible on the 
solar disk. AR4373 (S07W24, beta) was responsible for the M1.0 
flare observed during the UT day, but appears to have decayed 
slightly and is magnetically simple. AR4374 (N10E15, beta) showed 
some minor spot development over the day. An unnumbered region 
has developed at around S10W17 with beta magnetic classification. 
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar 
flare activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 14-16 Feb, 
with a chance of R1. S0 solar proton conditions were observed 
on UT day 13-Feb. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 
14-16 Feb. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have 
been observed. A narrow northwest directed CME is visible from 
13/0936UT in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery. This event is associated 
with an on disk eruption associated with the M1.0 flare at 13/0858UT. 
This CME was modelled and is not considered geoeffective. The 
solar wind speed increased slightly over 13-Feb, mostly ranging 
between 355 and 490 km/s. The wind speed is currently at around 
475 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength 
(IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range 
was -9 to +9 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to mostly remain 
near background levels on 14-Feb. An increase is expected over 
15-16 Feb due to a narrow equatorial coronal hole currently rotating 
towards a geoeffective position.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Feb: G0

Estimated Indices 13 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   32221323
      Cocos Island         7   22121223
      Darwin              10   32121324
      Townsville          10   32121324
      Learmonth            9   32221323
      Alice Springs        8   22221323
      Gingin              10   42220323
      Canberra             8   22220323
      Kennaook Cape Grim   9   32220323
      Hobart               9   32220323    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    14   32232513
      Casey               21   35432424
      Mawson              33   53442356

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9   3323 1312     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Feb     7    0
15 Feb    18    G0, chance of G1
16 Feb    15    G0, chance of G1

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 13-Feb. G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected 
on 14-Feb. Go conditions, with a chance of G1 are expected over 
15-16 Feb due to high speed wind stream effects from a narrow 
equatorial coronal hole currently rotating towards a geoeffective 
position.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly normal on 
UT day 13-Feb, with fair conditions observed at mid and high 
latitudes particularly at the beginning and end of the UT day. 
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 14-16 Feb. Mild 
degradations are possible over 15-16 Feb due to anticipated geomagnetic 
activity.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
13 Feb    89

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      96
Feb      88
Mar      87

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Feb    85    Near predicted monthly values
15 Feb    85    Near predicted monthly values
16 Feb    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region were near predicted monthly values on UT day 13-Feb. Spread 
F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected 
to be near predicted monthly values over 14-16 Feb, with a chance 
of mild depressions in the southern Australian region over 15-16 
Feb due to possible geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Feb
Speed: 392 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    97500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au