[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 February 26 issued 2330 UT on 11 Feb 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Feb 12 10:30:53 AEDT 2026


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 FEBRUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb:  R1

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2    0009UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.1    0044UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.4    1312UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb: 129/82


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Feb             13 Feb             14 Feb
Activity     R0, chance R1      R0, chance R1      R0, chance R1
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             120/72             115/66

COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 11-Feb was at the R1 
level due to three M-class flares, the largest of which was an 
M1.4 flare at 11/1312UT. All M-class flares were produced by 
AR4366 (N16W94, beta-gamma) which has now completely rotated 
over the western limb. There are currently six numbered sunspot 
regions visible on the solar disk. AR4374 (N11E49, beta) is the 
largest region on the disk and is stable. Newly numbered AR4375 
(N17E75, alpha) recently rotated over the eastern limb and appears 
stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. 
Solar flare activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 12-14 
Feb, with a chance of R1. S0 solar proton conditions were observed 
on UT day 11-Feb. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 
12-14 Feb. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have 
been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 11-Feb mildly declined, 
ranging from 410 to 520 km/s and is currently near 435 km/s. 
The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) 
was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -7 
to +7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near background 
levels over 12-14 Feb.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: G0

Estimated Indices 11 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   32332332
      Cocos Island         9   32222331
      Darwin              14   33332333
      Townsville          13   32332333
      Learmonth           14   33333332
      Alice Springs       11   32322332
      Gingin              12   32323332
      Canberra            13   32332333
      Kennaook Cape Grim  13   33332332
      Hobart              14   33332333    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    21   33344443
      Mawson              43   64434366

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Feb : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              13   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   1113 2234     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Feb     8    G0
13 Feb     6    G0
14 Feb     6    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 11-Feb. G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected 
over 12-14 Feb.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly normal on 
UT day 11-Feb, with fair conditions observed at mid and high 
latitudes. Mostly normal conditions are expected over 12-14 Feb.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Feb    81

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      96
Feb      88
Mar      87

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Feb    85    Near predicted monthly values
13 Feb    85    Near predicted monthly values
14 Feb    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 21 was issued on 
11 February and is current for 11-13 Feb. Maximum Usable Frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region were mostly near predicted monthly 
values on UT day 11-Feb. Southern Australian MUFs are depressed 
by 25% after local dawn. Sporadic E was observed at Perth during 
local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly 
values over 12-14 Feb.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Feb
Speed: 441 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:   144000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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