[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 February 26 issued 2330 UT on 10 Feb 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Wed Feb 11 10:30:52 AEDT 2026

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 FEBRUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Feb:  R0
Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Feb: 142/96

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Feb             12 Feb             13 Feb
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R0 level on UT day 10-Feb 
with no notable flares. There are currently seven numbered sunspot 
regions visible on the solar disk. AR4366 (N16W85, beta-gamma-delta) 
remains the largest and most magnetically complex region on the 
solar disk but will rotate off the visible disk on 11-Feb. All 
other regions appear either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity 
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 11-13 Feb. Solar radiation 
storm conditions were at the S0 level on 10-Feb. Solar radiation 
storm conditions are expected to be at the S0 level over 11-13 
Feb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed over the UT day. A 
filament lift off is visible from 10/1441UT in H-Alpha, GOES 
SUVI and SDO imagery at around N10W20-30. No associated CME is 
visible in available coronagraph imagery and most of the ejected 
material appears directed well to the west. The solar wind speed 
increased slightly over 10-Feb, mostly ranging between 380 to 
510 km/s . The wind speed is currently at around 460 km/s. The 
interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 9 
nT, with the North-South component (Bz) ranging between -7 and 
+6 nT over the UT day. The solar wind speed is expected to remain 
near background levels over 11-13 Feb.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Feb: G0

Estimated Indices 10 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11121123
      Cocos Island         4   10021123
      Darwin               7   11121124
      Townsville           7   2-121223
      Learmonth            9   21121234
      Alice Springs        5   11121123
      Gingin               9   21121234
      Canberra             5   11021123
      Kennaook Cape Grim   5   11121123
      Hobart               -   --------    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     7   10032124
      Casey                -   --------
      Mawson              24   32233256

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          80   (Active)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   3121 2212     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Feb     8    G0
12 Feb     5    G0
13 Feb     3    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 10-Feb. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in 
the Antarctic region, with G2 conditions observed at Mawson at 
the end of the UT day. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected 
over 11-13 Feb.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly normal over 
the UT day 10-Feb, with fair conditions observed at low and high 
latitudes, mostly at the start and end of the UT day. Mostly 
normal conditions are expected over 11-13 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts 
are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
10 Feb    92

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      96
Feb      88
Mar      87

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values
12 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values
13 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 
8 February and is current for 9-11 Feb. Maximum Usable Frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted monthly values 
on UT day 10-Feb with enhancements of up to 25% observed in the 
northern Australian region during local day. Sporadic E was visible 
around the Australian region during local night hours. MUFs are 
expected to be near predicted monthly values over 11-13 Feb. 
Sporadic E is possible during local night hours. Shortwave fadeouts 
are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Feb
Speed: 408 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:    86500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au